From Record Highs to Chance of Snow

After seeing record highs this past weekend, we are seeing a chance of snow Monday night/ Tuesday morning.

Many people were caught off guard by how warm it was this past weekend. In fact, record temperatures were set around the region on both days. Sundays record high for Charleston was set at 75°F at 2 AM! Furthermore, strong storms pushed through Saturday night/ Sunday morning along with gusty winds. After feeling the affects of these storms with region wide power outages and downed trees, the chance of rain again tonight may make you cringe. Here is a look at what we are expecting (according to our in-house computer system)...

Notice how most of the orange shading, which indicates heavier rainfall, is to our southeast. The West Virginia coal fields may see periods of heavy rainfall; however, compared to last night, the winds tonight are looking mild. The winds are what cause much of the damage last night. Furthermore, lightning is not expected tonight. The showers tonight should start after midnight (as hinted by the image above) and continue into the morning. The rest of tomorrow will be dry until the chance of snow develops. Here is a look at the NAM output for the snow chance...

At this point, the snow is looking to settle in closer to Tuesday morning than Monday night. The upper left image shows that for Tue at 7 AM, snow will just start to creep into Southern Ohio. After that point, the snow will spread southward into the rest of the region and by 10 AM (the upper right image) we see snow extending into eastern West Virginia. The far eastern portions of Kentucky should see a flurry or two but the bulk of the snow will affect the West Virginia mountains. In fact, the mountains will see snow until about 4 PM Tuesday (bottom two images). How much snow will we see? It is still too early to tell but here is the snow forecast from GFS...

Much of the region, according to this ouput, is only expected to see a dusting (up to 0.3 inches) with the mountains seeing closer to half an inch. However, I believe we will see more snow in the mountains. Looking at the below image on the left, we are seeing northwesterly winds on Tuesday morning, which would bring an upslope scenario to our region. This will aid in brining more snowfall to the mountainous region. As a result, I believe the snowfall forecast for the mountains should be closer to an inch.

Also, notice how by Christmas morning (in the upper right image), we are starting to see winds blowing in from the southwest. This will lead to warm air advection for Christmas day, as temperatures go from the upper teens early Christmas morning and into the lower 40's by the mid afternoon. Also notice how a how pressure system settles over our region Christmas day. This will bring mostly sunny skies to the region and will keep things quiet weather wise for the holiday!


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