We've made it to Friday!
Skies are clearing out from northwest to southeast today, as our storm system grazed the region last night and is already pulling away. Lingering low-level moisture and what has already soaked the ground from previous events is going to be ripe for fog formation this morning.
|GOES-13 Fog Product (Experimental)||GOES-13 Fog Depth Estimate|
The valleys of eastern Kentucky and West Virginia look to be the best candidates.
A trailing cold front can be seen on the right-hand image as well, moving into central Ohio. This is not going to cause more than a few clouds, but the Sun should still be able to own a good chunk of the skies above. April sunshine is often more powerful than a weak front, so we can see warming afternoon temperatures even with a wind-shift out of the northwest and cooling riding in aloft. However, when the Sun goes down that is a different story, and we can expect a chilly start to the day Saturday. But Saturday will be a day of temperature swing-- by afternoon, we'll be sitting pretty.
|HPC - Surface Map - Saturday|
That warm air flow reaches us during the later parts of the day, with that warm front lifting over us Sunday morning. The good news is that for much of the period beyond we'll be treated to at or above normal temperatures. The bad news is that the forecast itself is going to get annoyingly tricky. Here's what I mean, from the GFS:
|GFS - Sunday Afternoon||GFS - Monday Afternoon||GFS - Tuesday Afternoon|
The yellow line indicates a convergence zone where wind and moisture are meeting for showers. Notice how the thing just hangs around near us for a while. This has the advantage of pooling warm air underneath it (notice the red line on the map indicating 850mb-temperatures > 10C surging northward). But, you can always imagine undulations of showers scraping our counties whenever showers decide to pop. It's not something that can be definitively ruled in or out until they start popping, much like a summertime weather map.
It will actually get easier beyond Tuesday, as our weather organizes itself into a pretty decent storm system-- which also helps to keep the warm air riding in to the eastern half of the country.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!