Updates Below (most recent 3:00am)
Happy Thursday to one and all :-)
Today features some good sunshine after some patchy morning fog, but another storm system is approaching. Nevertheless, with initially low humidities and temperatures teetering around 80, it's a good one to get some things done before the rain arrives. Late-day outdoor events in eastern KY might want to keep an eye on the radar though, as those clouds will be filling in:
|NAM - Thursday 8 AM||NAM - Thursday 8 PM|
A strong-for-this-time-of-year storm system is moving in through the Ohio Valley, and the brunt of the storm is poised to enter the area during the morning hours Friday. Expect a wet commute:
|NAM - Overnight Thursday/Friday||NAM - Friday 2 PM
||NAM - Saturday 8 AM
I'm not entirely sure if the bulk of y'all want to see these sorts of systems discussed in terms of warm fronts and cold fronts, or if you prefer to look at rainfall intensity (like the above), but there were a couple things I wanted to point out with these maps. I'm going with the NAM resolution on these, as some of the runs yesterday ended up having a better handle on the pop-up showers a few of us saw. Also, it captures the clusters of moderate rain going up the I-79 corridor during the early afternoon. The notable rains may be over by early Saturday, but the storm system's influence continues. The thin black contours on those maps are the temperatures at the 850mb level (around 3000' above ground). The model is advertising temperatures of just 34-35 degrees in central WV at that air level-- not only a drastically lowering freezing line when it comes to hail generation inside a storm cloud, but also the idea that below normal temperatures Saturday are a lock. Given that cold pool aloft, it would be easy to generate clouds and even a few stray showers both Saturday and Sunday afternoon.
Regarding the prospects for severe weather on Friday, the good news is that the timing of the "bad" weather is about as good as it can be to keep the threat down. As we've talked about, getting the best storm dynamics to line up with the prime heating hours of the day (4-7pm) would generate the most concern. Indeed, here is the Storm Prediction Center's initial storm threat estimates for both Thursday and Friday afternoons:
|SPC - Severe Weather Threat - Thursday PM||SPC - Severe Weather Threat - Friday PM|
Keep in mind that the 'threat' is for "ALL" types of severe weather, so don't go thinking this is only about tornadoes and such. It would be a reasonable thought to suspect that that big red blob should find its way through WV at some point in the models, but really what's going on here is that the severity of the weather gets knocked down a few pegs at the early part of the day. By no means will the threat be eliminated, but it's not as alarming as it is wherever the storm system finds itself during the mid afteroon hours. This certainly is a recipe for a Thursday or Friday of frequent updates where possible.
Morning low temperatures during the period will be comfortably in the 50s, and the afternoon highs will drop to the 70s. Saturday itself will end up being around 70-degrees itself (brr?) Some folks won't get out of the 60s. We'll bounce back slowly Sunday and on into next week, but it depends on how soon we clear out any loitering clouds and get back to sunshine.
Update (3:00am) - Because we've seen some patchy dense fog around the region the past few mornings, it's appropriate to put up the fog products to anticipate another round of the same coming in today. It's expected that there will be less fog than yesterday, but a few folks did get wet-- heightening the chances of fog in those areas.
|GOES-13 Fog Product (Experimental)||GOES-13 Fog Depth Estimate|
The best give-away for fog development would be the yellow-ish colors on the left-hand map lined up with progressive coloration on the right-hand map.
Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!