Updated below (most recent 4:30pm Sunday)
We're now to the weekend, and it won't be long for folks to wish they had a little more Friday to enjoy.
A front sags south into the region, but stalls out right in the middle.
|HPC - Surface Map - Saturday|
There's a little bit of instability with this system, so we could sneak in a few rumbles of thunder. The thing we're going to be watching more intently is the rise on the river when snowmelt is combined with the rainfall. Each day will carry some rainfall, but Saturday and Monday are the wettest.
|NAM - Saturday Morning||NAM - Saturday Nigt||NAM - Sunday Afternoon
The models are still indicating some breaks here and there, but anything significant looks fleeting at this time. Monday continues to feature the strongest system coming through, as has been modeled by the GFS:
|GFS - Monday Afternoon||GFS - Tuesday Morning|
Just like we discussed yesterday, it's a good slug of moisture comes in Monday (with thunder on the table). Severe weather is not likely here, but we'll be keeping an eye on the streams. By Tuesday, a typical spring-time turnaround as temperatures dive and the moisture could end as flurries.
Here's a running 48-hour projection of the amount of rain we'll be looking at:
|HAS Precipitation Forecast||HPC Precipitation Forecast|
In order to get a truer impression of the flooding potential, we also have to monitor (and model) the amount of snowmelt we'll be seeing. Here's a recent capture of the "liquid water equivalent" (how much water you'd have if you melted all the snow):
|NOHRSC - Liquid Water Equivalent|
Certainly the snowpack isn't widespread, but where it is it is full of water. Seeing an inch of rain and 2 inches worth of liquid equivalent snowmelt would cause flooding. This combo seems more threatening in the Cheat River or Tygart River basins up in those eastern WV Mountains, but eventually it all makes it to the Ohio. Feel free to check back often this weekend to monitor the radar maps and the watches/warnings that may pop up.
Update (12:30pm) - A pleasantly surprising mid morning has turned into an abnormally warm day. A lot of sinking air that followed the strong showers of the overnight is making it hard for the showers to hold together today. As a result, the visible satellite picture has a lot of folks in sunshine:
Temperatures will soar in this kind of sunshine, as we're obviously getting a higher springtime sun-angle. Expect temperatures to jump toward the 70s rather than being stuck in the 50s. However, it's not coming to everyone just yet. Anywhere there are clouds, some scattered showers are still showing up on doppler. Humid skies remain in place, so just as if it were May, we'll have to be on the lookout for more pop-up showers in the afternoon.
Update (9:00am Sunday) - Some Saint Patrick's Day snowflakes popping up just along I-64 and north. It's a lot colder out there than yesterday, that's for sure.
The NAM has been picking this up nicely, with the latest runs keeping the snow around in our northern counties for several hours today:
|NAM - Precipitation Type - Sunday Mid-Morning||NAM - Precipitation Type - Sunday Evening|
By the afternoon, enough warm air rides in along the boundary to mix out most of the snow, and we'll be headed for rain from there through Monday. Overall, there's not much to worry about here. There are a few Winter Weather Advisories for slick roads and a possible brief coating on smaller roads.
Of course the Canaan Valley mountains will get their share (again). 3"- 6" are again on the table up there.
Update (4:30pm) - This thin ribbon of moisture has been quite an experience for some in the tri-state. Folks in Pikeville haven't seen much of anything, then there's the rain as you head north on US-23. Once you get to I-64, the wet snow mixes in. Crossing the Ohio River you're into accumulating snowfall (3" or so near Portsmouth, OH and out near Point Pleasant, WV), then farther north to Athens, OH and Parkersburg, WV-- nothing again.
Here's a recent screen capture on the WSAZ Interactive Radar:
The forecast still calls for warm air to eventually override the cold and change everything to rain, leading to a dreary Monday. But, it's certainly taking its time out there. Watch out for plenty of fog and yuck tomorrow in the places that see their 1-3" of wet snow today become a melting slush Monday.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!