Update (11/20) - Some of the new iterations of the computer models are inviting a little more moisture to get picked up behind the passage of the front late Friday. It's something to keep an eye on, but I think I'm going to go with some "Lake-Effect" snow for the mountains on Saturday. Check out the GFS interpolation:
|GFS - Projected Snowfall - Through Saturday|
(Click on the image for a larger size)
The clipper system bringing the moisture is largely a rain-maker except for the far-north, but that does change when it makes the turn around the lakes, when it is able to send cold air southward on some breezy winds.
Welcome to the start of the Thanksgiving holiday week.
Travelers have been blessed with perfect weather this weekend, and it wasn't so bad for those of us trying to get the rest of the yardwork done (again). Now it's time to keep the good times rolling for the hunters...
...but they like slightly different weather conditions. Specifically, a little colder, a little bit of a breeze, and a nice covering of snow on the ground.
Check out these temperatures to start the week:
|GFS - Max Temps - Monday||GFS - Max Temps - Tuesday||GFS - Max Temps - Wednesday|
The average high is now down to around 57, so now days like this are considered above-normal. The average for the month has us down around 5 degrees below normal. In addition, we've had less than a half-inch of precipitation since the days of Superstorm Sandy. Technically, it means we're well below normal for the month, but that's right around the same deficit we suffer for the year, so let's just say we've made up a lot of ground thanks to Sandy (hurricanes can do that).
As has been discussed over the weekend, we're pretty much continuing an uneventful weather pattern that should take us right through Thanksgiving Day.
The weekend that follows is a little different though, and we'll be keeping an eye on it.
|GFS - Surface Map - Friday Night||CMC - Surface Map - Friday Night|
Both the GFS and the Canadian model are resolving a similar storm that heads east through Southern Canada, but is also able to trail in a deep push of cold air. Mainly a cold November rain is expected in scattered amounts for Friday night, but the idea here is that we can get some Lake Effect snows coming around the back end. The Canadian model is much more aggressive on this point, but it's at least something new coming to town changing up the pattern.
Here's a look at the general trends in the week beyond:
|6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature||6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation|
The cold air trough in the west will be gone, but the pattern isn't necessarily fostering a coastal storm either. We'll see how it goes.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!