Update - Heavy rains to come to a close, for now anyway

As our front sags farther south today, expect brightening skies that will last into Sunday. More rain drifts back in by Monday. At least the timing is good, so we can enjoy the weekend.

Updates below (most recent 8:30am)

Happy Saturday!

Today's weather map continues to drop southward the front that has been responsible for focusing all the nasty showers across the Ohio Valley. Now, this won't be a deep push like a cold front would typically be, but instead it's a sag that is just enough to get us a little breather:

HPC - Saturday HPC - Sunday

They say that "almost" only works for various things (like horeshoes and hand-grenades), but I think perhaps this front 'almost' getting fully south of the area will be good enough for us as well. Of particular importance is this afternoon, where we've got the Run for the Roses out at Churchill Downs and the Wild Turkey Fest parade-- both significant events in their own right. Let's see what the situation is on the simulated radar:

NAM - 4km Sim Radar - Saturday 2pm
NAM - 4km Sim Radar - Saturday 6pm

So despite the annoying rain that may yet still push through the Mountain State, out in McArthur, OH and Louisville, KY there's some good prospects for a satisfying spectating time. As always, check out the maps below for the actual observations on the ground.

Looking beyond the weekend, we'll get another storm system in here Monday and Tuesday, which also has the likelihood of pushing a lot of water back into the picture. Here's what the GFS looks like:

GFS - Monday PM GFS - Wednesday AM

A couple of things jump out at me on this system. I've taken the liberty of drawing in a few arrows to help make the point. The green arrow on the first image is showing the strong 'advection' of both warmth and moisture right into the tri-state area. You can see how the temperature lines are bulging forward due to this advance. By the same process, cold air is 'advecting' in behind the front by Wednesday as the system finishes out through our area. I doubt it will be a completely clean break for us, because wind-flow going across the Great Lakes always scares up a few clouds at the very least. But it will be nice to talk about temperatures that will be 'below normal' for a change.

"Severe" weather is not expected overhead today, though "Severe" does not include flash flooding-- so I would continue to respect how saturated the ground is. It will only take 1-2" of rain to set things off, and that's just one thunderstorm. Keep an eye on the radar today, particularly in WV during the first-half of the day. Things should eventually improve for a longer respite, but until then make sure you are still avoiding water running across local roadways.

Update 8:30am - Check out this radar image that's coming in now...

It's like the rain has carved a little baby West Virginia image out of Kentucky :-)

That is all. As you were.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!


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