Good Thursday everyone! :-) Followers of my Facebook page already know I'm a big fan of all sorts of music and movies, and I end up tossing a bit of each around whenever I can. I do like this song though (don't hate me). Okay, so today's the day we're awaiting the rain. Let's check out how the models are anticipating the timing today...
|GFS - 2PM Thurs||CMC - 2PM Thurs||NMM - 2PM Thurs|
At this point, it should be expected that the models become more clustered around a common consensus (CMC notwithstanding). It should be pointed out here that the models (and to some extent forecasters) are notoriously bad at scenarios where approaching cold fronts are attempting to cut into large domes of high pressure that are slow to leave. Even though colder air is more dense and should be able to get underneath and do the trick, the jet stream itself will continue to incline moisture to "stream" up, over, and around the departing high pressure. We'll have to see how this bears out, but it's quite possible that the rain holds off until even later in the day-- giving you more time outside :-)
This system appears to want to bring with it a line of showers that will take all the way through the morning hours Friday to get out of here. All told, a pretty decent swath of "April Showers" (in March):
That, again from the National Weather Service's precipitation outfit. It keeps the threat of the really big rains to our southwest, and leaves us with 0.5" - 1.0" of rain from the event (definitely enough to get that grass growing). Any nudge closer of the heavier rain and it'd be a little different story. Considering the two days of good drying around here, our counties will be back to being able to handle about 1.5" of rain in a 6-hour period before street and culvert flooding becomes a problem.
Our next system we'll be watching beyond this doesn't look to impact the area until the last hours of the weekend, but it's of a neat-looking (and challenging) variety known as the 'bowling ball'. Check back tomorrow for more on this one.
For now, I hear y'all like "tracking tools" ... I'll be putting some up below so that you can follow the rain on its way in to our runway.
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
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Have a great Thursday everyone!
Don't forget to check out the morning forecast update at www.wsaz.com/weather !