Back at it on a Monday morning. I hope everyone has had a restful time of it. Or not; I did a huge amount of yardwork that needed to be done and the weather was perfect for that.
Turing our attention to the days ahead, there's going to be a pattern change back to moisture.
|HPC - Surface Map - Monday|
The orange arrow refers to the persistent warm inflow from the south that will greet the tri-state on Monday. The green arrow represents the moisture coming in from the Atlantic Ocean that will condense into precipitation once forced up the southern West Virginia mountains. The NAM is showing this here.
|NAM - Precipitation - Monday Afternoon||NAM - Wind-Field - Monday Afternoon|
Now, there's always the possibility that the rain needles it's way through the mountains and finds its way farther north/west, but the bulk should stick south of I-64. The rest of us will still have a pleasant day (particularly in the afternoon), though at times the rain-free pleasantness drifts into problems when we get more brushfires and less needed rain at a critical nascent gardening stage.
Following this, that front that was located off to our west will tip forward in annoying forecast style, creating an often-wavy line that separates humid warmth from cooler showers.
|GFS - Tuesday Evening||GFS - Wednesday Evening||GFS - Thursday Evening|
Each of those days we'll be running the risk of (and receiving) rainfall. There'll be a garden variety risk of thunder in there too, with an elevated risk later Friday when the back edge finally comes in.
Just like this past weekend, we'll have another notable cool-down behind the front. Check out the morning temperatures as the system approaches and passes through:
|GFS - Minimum Temperatures - Friday Morning||GFS - Minimum Temperatures - Sunday Morning|
Technically much of the area still hasn't hit its "official" growing season, such that frosts are still more than 50% likely in a given week-long stretch, but that will soon come to an end.
|6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature||6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation|
Well...maybe not just yet ;-)