Here comes some mud...

After temperatures hovering in the 30s and 40s during the day (and below freezing at night), we're now going to get a ground-thawing shot of warm air that will last for several days...

Welcome back ... It's another Monday :-)

Some of us were greeted with a few snowflakes last night. I hope you enjoyed them, because they're going to be in short supply for the next week-plus.

Skies try to clear out fairly early on in the day today, though it's going to take a while to fully succeed-- especially in the mountains. High pressure builds in for the next few days.

HPC - Surface Map - Monday Afternoon

Now, because we're directly underneath this area of high pressure to start (and it's a big one-- 1032mb), we won't be feeling a warming wind dragging in that balmy air we talked about yesterday just yet. Instead, it will be up to repeated appearances of sunshine to get the temperatures moving. If this were July, no problem. But, the middle of January is typically the coldest time of year, so don't expect those warm temperatures early this week. We will be making it above freezing (and to the 40s), so expect the rest of that snow-pack to be whittled away.

National Snow Analysis - Snow Depth (1/6/2012)

As the ground itself un-hardens and the snow melts, there will be a lot of mud showing up in Ohio and central West Virginia. Not that this is typically a prance-around-in-the-playground kind of time; just keep your boots handy :-)

Later this week, the storm we've been monitoring makes its approach. The models have been slowing this thing down over the past several runs, which makes some sense given the tendency for these short-waves to get hung up in the desert southwest (we talked about this yesterday too).

GFS - Thursday PM GFS - Friday PM

Now slated for late Thursday and Friday, this thing initially starts out pretty decent. It's able to channel air that's 20-degrees above normal into the region (60+), but the cold air just hangs back to the west waiting for the next system. As a result, this first storm falls apart and keeps us from a bigger soaker. But, we still have to watch that next system as well.

GFS - Surface Map - Sunday ECMWF - 850mb Chart - Sunday

There's some discrepancy between the Euro and the GFS with this next one (what else is new)...The Euro is a bit slower (what else is new). I tend to go with the Euro this far out over that of the GFS (what else is new). It's got more juice than the GFS as well, indicated by the deeper cold behind the front and the warmer air out ahead of it. There's actually a > 50 F difference at 850mb from the warm side to the cold side of the system on the Euro. So far, however, the storm looks to be angling north of us into Canada instead of sweeping through us, so at this point only a grazing instead of a direct hit. It will also cap off a much-above normal week, one that I'm sure many who read this blog (snow-lovers) think can't leave too soon.

6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature 6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation

Unfortunately, it looks like we'll be stuck with this kind of weather into the next week as well-- but that deep cold out west should serve to flip the pattern just in time for the end of the month. This would be right about the time our Winter Weather Preview in November talked about the second-half surge. Time to cash in some chips, eh?

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
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Have a great day everyone!



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