Good Friday morning everyone!
I hope everyone had as best of a 4th of July as possible given the rain yesterday. I know a lot of the I-64 corridor sprouted up storms in the afternoon that quit just in time to set off fireworks, but that wasn't everyone's experience.
This morning features the same pattern that's been unusually stagnant across the country: Patchy fog giving way to partly sunny skies giving way to the flaring showers and storms. As was with yesterday, the focus continues to be in our western counties. The Flash Flood Watch is still in effect today, favoring those same central and western counties (as always, check them out in the tracking maps below).
HPC - 48-hour Rainfall Projection
It presents somewhat of a catch-22: There will be a point on this west/east continuum where the best prospects for sunshine also turn into the best risk for flash flooding when the storms pop up.
All the traditional spots that crave rainfall in the heat of July (golf courses for example), have been screaming for a break. Some places are already up over 10" of rain since June 1st. And yet, because the rain has not been falling in consistent amounts (thunderstorms often don't fill up an entire river basin with the same rain the way a front might), we haven't been seeing a whole lot of river flood talk commensurate with that kind of above-normal rainfall.
The weather pattern going forward will end up leveling off into something a bit more common for summer: partly sunny skies, steamy humidity, and the afternoon flare-up of showers and storms. This shouldn't ease anyone's fears for the potential of a spot flooding issue in a poorly draining area, but at least we'll get to a point where most of us will still be able to enjoy many dry hours of the day despite that risk of rain.
Number one on the minds of many is, "when are we going to catch a break?" I know a lot of folks out there are begging for a little string of dry skies, but the seas are just too choppy right now. From the weekend on into next week I could easily see a day where some folks manage to stay dry all the way through, but it will be tough to get 2 of them together much less three for the hay bailers. In fact, this weather pattern itself is not going to change until an actual cold front clears the puck (to use a hockey reference).
GFS - Next Friday Morning
A pleasant sight for sore eyes-- if only it weren't so far away. Between now and then we're all going to still be in line for a couple more inches of rain, but that will be divvied up into burst amounts wherever the thunderstorms manage to hit. Each day there will be hits and misses, so you can always get out there and still get some things done. Unfortunately however, if you're needing that all-day dry day, you're still playing with fire for a while to come.