Update 7-18 -Instability builds again, best storm risk still to come

Summer continues its mid-season form. Scattered showers and storms today, but more will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday. Much needed rainfall for the tri-state area comes in patchy bunches.

Update (7-18) - Just like yesterday, showers and storms are forming in tandem with the region-wide race toward 90 degrees. This time around however, the storms are flaring up earlier in the day (see the radar maps below). Today, we are under a "slight risk" for severe weather, here is the breakdown:

SPC - Hail Threat SPC - Wind Threat SPC - Tornado Threat

This represents an increase in coverage from earlier in the morning. Downpours are by far the biggest issues, but we could get some winds if localized storm dynamics will bring them down to the surface. 

Precipitable Water / Radar - 10:00am

This morning there is more moisture available over the Ohio River compared to the Appalachians, and we've already recevied a report of 2" of rain within a slow moving thunderstorm earlier today in SE Kentucky. Just keep in mind that any one of these storms that pop today can carry a spot-flooding downpour.


Helloooo Tuesday...

We're going to pick up where yesterday left off... More isolated morning fog where the showers came through (primarily eastern Kentucky), but then back to a steamy start with hazy sunshine moving those temperatures into the 80s by lunchtime. Just like in days past, we'll be watching for showers and storms to pop around 2pm and continuing into the early evening hours. Each day that goes by that keeps storms at the 'isolated' level, the temperatures are going to ramp up a little higher. Consider this temperature forecast map:

NAM - Temperatures - Tuesday PM

Near 90-degree temperatures are again a good bet around the River Cities area, but look up there in Michigan. The Detroit area will be over 100-degrees-- yuck! There is a stronger southwest flow out that way than here (thank you mountains) and they are at its mercy.

Don't look now, but we're in line for a mini heat wave. Temperatures are poised to crest just at or over 90 into tomorrow, making at least 3-straight days (the minimum qualifications). After several days with practically no difference between temperatures in the north and the south, we're going to get a change in here. Here's a look at the max-temps maps with that story:

GFS - MaxTemps - Thursday GFS - MaxTemps - Friday GFS - MaxTemps - Saturday

We may yet get to 90 on Thursday as well, but by this point we're staring down the arrival of a storm front that should sweep out some of this building humidity and fertile breeding ground for storms (not how the Detroit area will be seeing temperatures 20-degrees cooler... something that doesn't happen in July without strong/severe storms popping up).

By the time the real action arrives, we'll be more than ready for a breather from the humidity. Check out this product from the GFS that looks at our rising dewpoints:

GFS - Dewpoints - Thursday AM

Seriously, can it get any muggier?

(The dewpoint is a measure of moisture in the air. In a nutshell, the higher the number the more uncomfortable the air gets.)

Here's a look at the afternoon storm coverage over the next few days. You'll see the arriving front manifesting itself in a clear up-tick in storms:

NAM - Tuesday PM NAM - Wednesday PM NAM - Thursday PM

Between Wednesday evening and Thursday, I suspect we will be seeing a "Slight Risk" of sever weather to talk about.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!


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