UPDATE (11/7, 2:00am) - The line coming through associated with the cold front is not too impressive, at least for what it would take to get some wind problems around here. The gusts aren't that big of a deal. There are some 600 customers in Cabell county (Huntington area) without power right now, but it's hard to think that it was because of some great wind. Naturally, my house is without power ;-)
This line will be through by the morning hours, and we'll see sunshine break through for the afternoon. Highs have already occured for the day, as we'll be lucky to muster the low 50s after sunrise, and drop into the 40s later today.
And yes, I'm seeing that interesting storm system ahead for the middle/later part of next week. It does have a snow signature to it, so we'll talk about it on the next blog post :-)
We've made it to the middle of the week, and the weather pattern is looking similar to last week's...
HPC - Surface Map - Wednesday Afternoon
A low pressure center works northeastward through the Great Lakes into Canada, and the trailing cold front gradually slides eastward through the Ohio Valley. Warm air flows in from the Deep South and gets us up toward the 70-degree mark. Cold air rushes in behind the front, setting up another clash of air masses. Wednesday's weather will be pretty good-- but it goes downhill after sunset. The question for us is if we're going to have a repeat of last week's madness.
NAM - Thursday - 1am
So, the system we've got coming this time is weaker than the one before it. However, we're still going to be looking at a fresh gusty wind with the frontal passage. (Another overnight frontal passage, unfortunately). The left-hand map describes precipitation intensity along with temperatures at the 5,000-ft level (850mb). The right-hand map comes the anticipated winds at the surface, though smoothed out over a couple-hour time frame. Like with last week, we'll be looking at the data for what maximum wind spike we can get. Given the middle map products (the 850mb and 900mb winds), 30-40kt winds will be speeding along just above ground level. If we get a squall line to develop (like last week), the internal circulation of the individual cells combined with the downrush of any downpour will be sufficient to drive this kind of wind to the surface.
Last week's winds were at the 60-kt level, so these would be an order of magnitude less. One could say that trees that survived such winds can reasonably look to survive this bit as well, however if a powerline came down it's not a guarantee that once put back it's any more resilient than before (I'm thinking of the thrice spliced line in front of my own house... ;-).
The Storm Prediction Center is currently not too concerned about this gust line:
This is because the threshold for "severe" weather is 58mph. This was easily crossed all around the tri-state area last Friday, but is much an outside shot with this one. Nevertheless, even though this is not expected to be a "severe" event as of yet, there's always the possibility that things would change-- and of course if a 40mph knocks out the power to your house... well that's just plain annoying.
It's a good subject to talk about though, because it's important to quell any rising fear about future weather with some information. This should breed confidence, rather than panic. Naturally we can't control what a certain wind will end up being able to do and not do when it finally blows, but by current accounts we're going to avoid a repeat of last week.
Temperatures may well be at their warmest Thursday exactly at midnight, then descend from there all the way through the day until bottoming out 35-degrees cooler Friday morning. Back to reality, folks!
Have a great day everyone!