WSAZ - Blogs - Brandon Butcher

It's back to Monday... but everyone wants to know about later in the week ;-)

Wouldn't you know it-- some showers are coming to the area soon, but I recognize that folks are primarily interested in what Isaac is going to do. As far as our area is concerned, it's not happening for a while.

Happy Monday Everyone!

Our weather map finally features a little change or two coming in. Our stodgy area of high pressure is still mulling about, but continues to lose its grip over the region.

HPC - Surface Map - Monday PM

Pay no attention to that hurricane down there in the Gulf-- just yet anyway, we'll get to that ;-)  These showers are coming in during the overnight and early morning hours Tuesday, but the southern half of the trough will be weakening ("Isaac" is hogging all the Gulf moisture/energy that this front would certainly have liked). Often times these tropical systems will themselves be drawn into the inflow of these front-based storms, but it probably won't happen in this case because the upper-air dynamics of the frontal system is really only decent nearer to the Great Lakes, a full 1000 miles away from the Gulf.

Don't expect a whole lot of moisture from this one (though there will be some thunder in there somewhere ;-), so the parched ground will continue to stay that way. However, it will do well to bend down the temperatures a little bit and put us back in the mid 80s.

GFS - MaxTemps - Monday GFS - MaxTemps - Tuesday GFS - MaxTemps - Wednesday

Okay... Now On To Isaac.

Here's the latest on its position and track. It probably should become a hurricane today as it enters the warm loop current of the Gulf of Mexico.

NHC - Tropical Storm Isaac - Current Information And Forecast Track Wunderground - Tropical Storm Isaac - Computer Models

 The forecast guidance continues to shift slightly to the west (and you can see all the models that go into coming up with this track-- though nothing beats experience). The current expectation is for the storm to approach the Louisiana coastline Tuesday afternoon.

GFS - Tropical - Tuesday Afternoon HPC - Tropical - "Isaac" Rainfall Projection

Check out that water on the right-hand map. There's a reason why hurricanes are called 'drought-busters'... In a way, there are a lot of folks in the south and Ohio Valley states that are just tickled pink at the thought of rain coming in-- even if it is from a tropical system.

Now, I know a lot of you have been wondering: "what's that all mean for us?" ... Well, if you notice above the model spread is still pretty wide-- and, just because the center of the system is at a particular point at a given time doesn't mean that the rain is going to be anywhere near the center of the system by then. Weakening tropical systems over land are notorious for lots of rain, but also can have little relation to the center of circulation. Here's two longer-range models and their projected timings for "Isaac" coming near the tri-state area:

GFS - Saturday AM CMC - Friday PM

Yeah... we got time. Folks toward the southern Gulf coast-- not so much.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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