Good Sunday morning everyone!
Our weather map features the same pattern we've been talking about for the past several days: a deep trough in the Ohio Valley, a tropical stream of moisture up and east of the Appalachians, and a huge ridge of heat off to our west.
HPC - Surface Map - Sunday Afternoon
As we've seen though, it's not a solid experience of rain as if a strong spring storm went through, but it is a persistent thing based on the steering currents across the country. If I had to choose, I'd prefer the occasional drenching rain to the searing heat out to our west. Last year we already would have crossed the 100-degree mark here in the Tri-State area. This year, just 4 times we've hit or crossed 90 (in Huntington for example).
Showers and storms will continue to cut across our area in packs, with humid skies besides. Some of us may just be grazed by a few hundreths of an inch of rain, while at other times you'll get hit with a full inch or more with a downpour.
A weather variable that can reflect this well is "precipitable water"
Precipitable Water - Sunday Morning
Generally speaking, the higher the precipitable water overhead, the better likelihood for downpours and such. A lot of the time this is understood in terms of standard deviations above or below normal. Note the darker green shades going right up the Atlantic Seaboard. This doesn't mean that every day is full of rain there, but they have been receiving quite a large share of the downpours (and it matches up quite well with the moisture arrow drawn in on the HPC map above).
As a case in point, Huntington has "only" registered about 1" of rain more than normal for the month of June, but travelers to Myrtle Beach, SC have seen more than 6" of rain above normal (of course the 3.25" yesterday has a lot to do with that).
The rain we'll see will continue to be diurnally forced, which means it will be concentrated with the prime heating hours of the afternoon and just down to remnants and leftovers in the morning hours.
(From the NAM model)
The good news is that severe thunderstorms are not expected with this, but the bad news is that we'll be transitioning to a flash flood mindset (if we're not already there) given the soggy ground and the possibilities for more of these downpours.
It's a rather persistent weather pattern. Whenever you get these deep troughs and ridges across the country in the summer months, there's not much that can move things around. Expect the risk of showers and storms throughout the next several days.
Have a great day everyone!