Keeping an eye on the present, but still looking ahead (update)

Another round of showers and storms coming in today, but the warmth will continue through next week. Severe weather re-emerges as a possibility in the middle of the country this week.

Sunday SUNDAY Sunday...

Showers and storms again roam around in scattered bits. Feel free to follow them on the tracking tools below. Severe weather not expected to be a problem with these, but flooding (again) could emerge as an issue again if a well targeted downpour hits some of these already saturated areas. So far, we've fortunate since the rather disastrous Friday, but it is still something to keep an eye on. The "Flash Flood Guidance" is similar to yesterday (~ 2" in a 6-hour period will set things off, but slightly less will do the trick in the previously hard hit areas of Logan/Lincoln counties, for example).

Turning our attention to the week ahead, there is a lot of warmth coming to the eastern-half of the country, though for us it'll be the same sort of warmth we've already been having. Here's the CMC Model showing temperature "anomalies" (how temperatures look either above or below normal):

CMC - Temp Anomaly - Sun PM CMC - Temp Anomaly - Weds PM

Now, the CMC model is always a good one to go to "for effect", because sometimes features can get exaggerated (like perhaps the calling for temperatures that are 50-degrees above normal). However, it may not be that far off. Temperatures at St. Vincent, MN (in the upper left corner of Minnesota) are expected to be in the low 80s on that left-hand map. The average temperature for this time of year up that way is the low 40s. Please keep in mind though, that the Northern Plains are routinely all over the place for temperature and can often see swings of as much as 100 degrees in a week or less. Anyway, this warm spot feature shifts east during the week and sets up similar above-normal 'anomalies' near the James Bay area of Canada. Through the whole period, we here will experience the same sort of 20-25 degrees above normal weather we've been having, stunted only by the periods of clouds/thunder that have become routine these last few days.

Looking ahead, these unusually warm temperatures are eventually going to run their course, and will get replaced by a sweeping storm system that is currently dumping rain and snow in the Pacific Northwest. The Storm Prediction Center has been monitoring the case, and has already issued a "Slight Risk" forecast for the traditional "Tornado Alley" areas of the country for Tuesday:

This same weather system will be heading our way toward the end of the week, but that gives us plenty of time to keep an eye on it. At this point, it appears there will be a little bit of weakening before it gets here:

GFS - Tuesday PM GFS - Friday AM

Even behind this front it still looks like the cold air is locked up well to the Northwest (for example, a place like St. Vincent, MN will be in the 30s during the day Friday ;-) so folks that are still concerned about the late-season frost/freeze will be able to breathe easy for this week.

Update 7am - The National Weather Service has issued a "Flash Flood Watch" for some of the harder hit counties the last time. It is scheduled to go in effect at 8am, and last through this evening (see the warning map in the tracking tools). Here's the currently anticipated precipitation forecast by the folks who issue the watches:

HAS Precipitation Forecast HPC Precipitation Forecast

And the current Flash Flood Guidance for the counties in the watch area indicate susceptibility:

Name 1-hr 3-hr 6-hr 12-hr 24-hr
Lincoln (WV) 1.4" 1.6" 1.9" 2.1" 2.4"
Mingo (WV) 1.6" 1.8" 2.1" 2.4" 2.7"
Logan (WV) 1.3" 1.5" 1.8" 2.0" 2.3"

Indeed, much of the region has similar guidance values (if you were wanting to know what the numbers were for your county), however the number of people that are directly targeted by flash flooding in these counties, and the recent history here, has made it a priority to alert folks to the possibilities so they can be aware. Keep in mind that a couple thunderstorms, should they "train" over the same location today, can cause spot flooding just about anywhere.

Here are your tracking tools for today's weather:

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

 From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports


Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!



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