It's a good Wednesday morning to one and all :-)
High pressure continues to dominate, and keeping the winds light and variable. We've been tracking many brush fires that have sprouted up in our extremely dry conditions (0.33" for the month in Huntington), in particular the Twilight area of Boone County. One fire there has reached 1000 acres in size. It is under control, but it will continue to smolder until natural rains can put it out for good. That's probably not going to happen this week, certainly not before Friday.
|HPC - Surface Map - Wednesday PM|
We still have our twin-barrell high pressure areas, and they still are doing a great job of keeping out all any possibility of showers. Enjoy some of the best travel weather we've had region-wide for your getaway plans. Highs will stay in the low 60s right through Thanksgiving Day.
As we have been tracking during the week, a cold front finally approaches with a little gusto on Friday. It's got some cold air to work with too, so changes are a'comin:
|GFS - Friday Afternoon||GFS - Saturday Morning|
Initially we're only talking about rain, and not a whole lot at that. However, come playoff football time, temperatures will be dropping through the 50s all the way to the 20s on Saturday. -8 Celsius at 850mb is some chilly air, particularly when coming in off the warm Great Lakes. Lake Erie's water temperature is currently 48 F, which is about 9 C. In traditional Lake-Effect snow forecasting, you take the Ocean temperature and the temperature at 850mb. If there is more than a 13 C difference between the two numbers, then Lake Effect snow is a good bet in whatever elevated surface lies directly downwind.
Point being, Lake-Effect snow is on the menu for Saturday. The best bet is the higher terrain in the West Virginia mountains, where a few inches can fall. This would be a boon to the hunters in the area, that's for sure. Elsewhere, an elevation line of about 2500-feet is best for flakes.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!