I hope you've all managed to enjoy a nice Tuesday. As we turn our attention toward the mid-week weather, the first thing that jumps out will be the strong advance of warmer air into the area, carried along by a strong area of high pressure to the east and a steady fetch of southwest winds bringing up the weather of the deep south up our way. Here's what it looks like on the GFS model:
|Wednesday's Highs||Thursday's Highs|
The yellow that is propelled all the way into the finger-lakes region of upstate New York are temperatures in the mid-60s. No doubt we've been there before, but this time around it's a "worry-free" warmth, at least until the showers arrive on Thursday. So let's take a look ahead at those. Here are three models, with their arrival times:
|GFS - 8pm Thurs||CMC - 8pm Thurs||NAM - 2pm Thurs|
So there's a little spread with the models...My personal favorite in these situations would be the NAM, with a blend of the models for precipitation estimates (though the CMC is often a black-sheep, so I usually use it to see if there's something crazy possible out there). This would put the onset of moisture in the afternoon-- So plenty of time to enjoy much of Thursday's warmth.
Now, anytime we have a frontal system working in during the prime heating hours of the day, there's always a threat for thunderstorms (especially in late-spring/summer). The GFS is hinting at the possibility of some heavier rains skirting the southern part of the area, but I think we won't be seeing more than a few good showers. The NWS's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) is also thinking of a more garden-variety rains:
|HPC Day 1-3 QPF|
The last question we have, is whether or not thunderstorms are going to be bringing this rain. Considering the recent tornadoes of last Friday, even though any thunder may be spooky to start with it will hard to ever get any future storm to come across as comparably severe.
|NAM - Lifted Index - 8pm Thurs|
This is a model representation of the "Lifted Index", which is a general rule-of-thumb way to assess the instability of the atmosphere. It won't exactly give you the 'how bad will the storms be' information, but it's great for quickly assessing a "yes or no" for thunderstorms. At this point, it is natural to expect a destabilization of the atmosphere out ahead of a front like this. We'll probably make it through this one without too many storms, but we've got another day to look at things of course.
So enjoy your Wednesday (and good chunk of Thursday). I bet there'll be some good tee times for you golfers out there :-) We'll revisit this tomorrow, and look ahead to the weekend where our next storm system is looking to move in.