Models Flopping Around, But Snow Is Still In The Cards

During the coldest weather we've seen in a while, we might as well deserve a little snow. But, it's still early...

Good Tuesday morning everyone!

If you're up-and-at-em bright and early today, you are reading this to a shivery cold morning :-) Many temperatures will start the day around 10-degrees, with some single-digit numbers popping up as well. Feel free to let us know what your morning low was in the comments section below.

The forecast is largely unchanged from the previous few days; A preponderance of cold winds blowing across the lakes and toward our general area enhances scattered flurries but doesn't cause much accumulation.

HPC - Surface Map - Tuesday

Today the models aren't as hot on the roving bands of flurries, keeping them closer to the lakes-- but you can never completely count them out in an environment this cold. Today will be a struggle to get to 20 let alone far above it. When the wind blows, expect jack frost to be a-nipping at your nose...

NWS - Forecast Wind Chill - Tuesday NWS - Forecast Wind Chill - Wednesday

On The Moving Models...

Any of our blog-watchers that are model junkies would have noticed a recent favorable bump (towards snow) from one of the GFS runs, but this should be taken in context with the other ones, and bumps and blips can often occur in the long range.

GFS - Recent Run - Friday Afternoon GFS - Recent Run (minus one) - Friday Afternoon GFS - Recent Run (minus two) - Friday Afternoon

The "minus one" and "minus two" is a way to describe the "most recent model previous" and the "one before that", or at least that's the way I just made up. So look at the one in the middle-- It's a great snow solution. However, it indicates two separate lows not phasing together. Not only that, but the run before and after it revert back to a more consistent warm-spike solution. Aberrations are important to keep in mind, but the dominant presentation deserves more weight-- especially if it's the one that keeps on happening to the area :-/ This means I'm still leaning toward the warm-spike on Friday (BUT, with a change-over to accumulating snow on the back end, of an amount I'm not yet prepared to declare).

Snow-lovers DO have something in their favor though: The often-right Euro model is trying to sneak a little farther southward...

ECMWF - Friday Morning

This solution is reminiscent of the one that brought the spot heavy snow to the southernmost part of the tri-state area last week. We've got a good blocking high pressure to the north that is sure to keep the cold air dammed down along the Appalachian range such that a wintry mix would be a possibility with snow instead of straight rain. But, with all such models, it's more important to monitor trends and most likely scenarios rather than jumping on the first sign of something we'd like to see. Nevertheless, there's something for everybody this time around. ;-)

Let's take it another day and see what happens.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!



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