Updates below (most recent 4:30pm)
Hey Hey... It's Friday!
Time to gear up for the weekend (well, then again, some of us have been doing that since, um, Monday). There's a near endless list of things going on these days:
Meigs County Fair in Pomeroy, OH
Kanawha County Fair in Institute, WV
Magnolia Fair in Matewan, WV
Live on the Levee (tonight) in Charleston, WV
Rally on the River in Ironton, OH
...That's just off the top of my head; I'm sure there are others.
Unfortunately for all the folks out there that want to do some things outside today, this is the day for the rain. We've had a good run, and are about to have another, so I suppose we should have some level of acceptance for rainfall (everywhere but the southlands still need it).
As we've been talking about this week, a front swings through today. Here's a model rendering of this batch of showers during the day:
|NAM - Surface Map - Friday AM||NAM - Surface Map - Friday PM||NAM - Surface Map - Early Saturday AM|
The umbrella looks good for this one, and if you're heading out to opening kickoff of the Kentucky football season tonight you'll have to towel off a seat :-)
As far as severe weather is concerned, yesterday's explanation still looks good. Here's another set of model products to maintain the discussion:
|NAM - Available Storm Energy - Friday PM||NAM - Lifted Index - Friday PM
I would call this a less-than-marginal event for the prospects of severe weather. Should there be such a storm, it would most likely in the southern coal-fields where the best storm energy meets the best lifting mechanics. That's a bummer though, because they don't want it the most. As with most events, the biggest worry in those southern valleys is primarily going to be flooding. Here's the breakdown of expected rainfall from today's event:
|HAS Precipitation Forecast||HPC Precipitation Forecast|
Better energy lies to our south, and better surface heating on the other side of the mountains. I'd expect better prospects for storm formation there, while we get the garden-appreciating rains with some rumbles. As always, be aware if a downpour stalls out overhead. Feel free to check back often to keep tabs on rainfall amounts. 1 - 2" in a period of a few hours is significant enough to kick off flooding in those southern valleys.
After the skies clear out Saturday morning, we'll be treated to a delightful weekend with below-normal temperatures and sunshine. For the middle of August to feature highs struggling to get back to 80-- a second weekend in a row, that's impressive! Take some time, make some plans, and get outside!
Unfortunately though, the dry weather will get a little comfortable, which is probably not a good thing. Some of the models are pushing off the next system until later next week. Take a look at these images:
|GFS - Surface Map - Thursday PM (8/23)||GFS - Total Rainfall - Between Now and Thursday PM (8/23)|
Click on the above images for a larger pop-out.
What these two maps are saying is: Whatever we get today, may be about all we'll see for a week!
Update (9:45am) - Obviously the models were over-anxious to bring these showers in this morning, but they're still coming. Check the maps below as the daytime heating encourages the rain to fill in along the front. The additional daytime heating will probably work against folks along I-79 and Corridor-G to get a few more rumbles.
Update (4:30pm) - The recent runs of the NAM model are really picking up on this rapid clear-out following the passage of the front (and its showers):
|NAM - 700mb Chart - Friday PM|
The brownish color indicates relative humidities at cloud level dropping from 90%+ to less than 10%. This will be most realized in Ohio and Kentucky at first, with the Mountain State running a race to see sunshine before nightfall. Either way, it looks like all the fairs, festivals, concerts, and football games will have to deal with the water on the ground rather than the sky as well :-)
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!