More scattered storms today, less tomorrow

Tracking and predicting the "scattered thunderstorm" may be an exercise in herding cats, but there are a few things we can count on regarding the next few days...

Welcome to Wednesday -- half-way to the weekend!

This morning brings us more hazy cloud cover than yesterday, and with a more prevalent risk of showers. The zone of instability we've been talking about over the past few days on the blog will be setting up shop right through the tri-state today:

HPC - Surface Map - Wednesday

Our storm front has completely folded forward through New England and stalled out in the Ohio Valley. High pressure to our south in the Carolinas certainly isn't helping much either. This doesn't mean the entire day will be a rain-out, nor that there won't be any periods of sunshine; It does mean that of the three-day period of Tuesday-Thursday we're expecting the most widespread showers on Wednesday.

Because of the higher incidence of cloud cover and wandering showers, the threat for severe weather will be nice and low (often a day of loaded warmth and Sun is a much better candidate-- more on this soon).

Notice on the above map that the now stalled front is split into a cold section and a warm one, with the warm front being just to our west. This is what will take over for our weather Thursday and effectively lift the convection zone up north of us. The NAM breakout products can shed some light on this:

NAM - Wind-Field - Thursday Afternoon NAM - Precipitation - Thursday Afternoon NAM - Temperature - Thursday Afternoon

As the wind forces the moisture northward, the interplay between it and the Appalachian mountains will cause upslope showers on the south side and downslope warming closer to the Ohio River on the north side. It's always a fun time applying such terrain diversity to the forecast :-)

Thursday will turn out to be the warmest day we've got in the next bunch, as well as feature a spike in the fire danger. It's a good thing that Friday features a finishing line of showers and storms that will wipe the pattern clean in time for the weekend.

GFS - Friday Afternoon GFS - Saturday Afternoon

There's no doubt that there's a good air mass contrast and clash setting up on Friday, so we'll have to be on the lookout again for the prospects of strong/severe storms. By Saturday, temperatures at the 5,000-foot level are back below freezing(!) Yes, this does mean some areas closer to the lakes may well be fighting back flakes, but it might be just too warm anymore for snow in our WV mountains. Nevertheless, it looks like our morning temperatures will once again grace the upper 30s both Saturday and Sunday mornings-- much like last week. No fun at the ball fields.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!



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