Morning chill and a fast-moving flow

As we get closer and closer to winter, there are going to be mornings that push the envelope as the "coldest yet". We'll have a few such mornings to start the week. A couple of opportunities for rain this week as well, but nothing serious.

It's back to Monday...and a cold one at that.

At the bottom of this blog post, you should find a map of current local temperatures and one that indicates shaded counties where frost/freeze warnings are active. As skies cleared out from yesterday, the prospect for frost increases by way of the "radiational cooling" we talked about.

The most likely spots for success with this will be in Ohio, as clouds will stream in early this morning from the south but leave this area well enough alone. Here's what the GFS model is outputting for morning lows the next two days:

GFS - Min Temps - Monday AM GFS - Min Temps - Tuesday AM

Notice how the temperatures tomorrow morning are actually colder than this morning. The arrival and passing of this weak cloud/shower system is responsible for this. There are actually two opportunities for rainfall during the first half of this week. Here's the NAM model on those two points.

NAM - Monday PM NAM - Wednesday PM

These two systems have different character, but essentially they'll be doing the same thing: throwing clouds around and a rather pedestrian spattering of showers. In between is where we find the cold Tuesday morning. Both days (today and tomorrow) you'd have to get the kids ready with the colder weather gear, but some warmer temperatures are in line later on as well. Nothing too crazy, just back to the 70s by the end of the week ahead.

Speaking about the week ahead, here's a look at the general weather feel in the longer range:

6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature 6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation

Finally the persistent cold-plunge pattern looks to be loosening its grip on the region. The moisture does tick up in the week ahead, and given the wide swings in warmth/cold wet/dry, this can mean that a system or two will provide a soaker. Something to keep an eye on :-)

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!



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