Good Saturday morning to you all.

We've made it to the weekend. Time to sit back and relax-- and beat the heat.

No need for temperature graphics today; the models have been saying the same thing for days. None of the "official" weather stations in the area got above 90, but we certainly saw a lot of citizen thermometers registering the heat (as always, thank you all for your weather reports!) Given recent trends in high temperatures and the anticipated weather, today and tomorrow will feature the most heat. The low 90s are a good bet, just shy of record temperatures.

Here's the hi-res simulated radar image for this afternoon:

So a few poppers in the mountains, and we go from there. The weather looks fine for the Ironton parade and everything else going on out there :-)

The next real rain doesn't come in until just after we're finished cleaning up the backyard barbecue and headed back to work.

GFS - Tuesday AM	GFS - Wednesday AM

Even though it's not going to stop by for too terribly long, I'd expect thunderstorms to be in this one. Not too many other ways to encounter the heat we've got overhead without at least some boomers. Now, remember that we'll still have to deal with a few afternoon pop-ups even on Memorial Day itself, but Tuesday would represent the first day we're back to normal 'front-based' showers and not the 'air mass' variety.

---Tropical Tangent (Beryl)---

That's right... We've got another tropical system on our hands before the actual 'official' start to the tropical season. I wouldn't get too alarmed or fearful for the upcoming tropical season just yet. Beryl (and Alberto before it) haven't been anything to write home about. Here's the latest:

NHC - Sub-Tropical Storm Beryl - Track	Sub-Tropical Storm Beryl - Wind Field

 If you noticed, this is currently assessed as a "SUB" tropical storm. This first started happening in the early 70s, but recently have been more fashionable. What is happening here is that there is some evidence for a Tropical Storm (wind speeds > 39mph, convection around a closed low-pressure center, etc) but there are also characteristics that are not tropical in nature (in this case, it's that it's located underneath an upper-level area of low pressure, rather than high pressure). Think of it as a Tropical Storm that isn't quite extending vertically yet. The current forecast does put it as a full Tropical Storm by the time it approaches Jacksonville, FL. These guys typically form early in the season, and often before the start of the actual season given the mediocre ocean conditions just getting ramped up.

My thing with these storms, is that prior to 1960 (the "satellite era") it would be almost impossible to guarantee that we could be aware of all such storms in the Altantic during a season. Unless these weak, brief storms move through shipping lanes or make landfall, they could be missed entirely. Our modern technology of being able to mine every group of thunderstorms for tropical characteristics is great, but it definitely throws off the accuracy of trying to assess trends in storm frequency.

Anyway, there's Beryl. No big deal.

---End Tangent---

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking	Accuweather Radar

Temperatures	HD Doppler Radar	Estimated Rainfall	Active Warnings
Click For Larger	Click For Interactive Radar	Click For Larger	Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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