WSAZ - Blogs - Brandon Butcher

Much needed showers hang around, but still avoid many dry areas

Showers are what the ground needs, but we keep seeing more misses than hits around here. Temperatures will be a little cooler these next couple of days-- no complaints there.

Hello to Tuesday :-)

We'll begin with patchy cloud cover, partly what's left over from the departing showers of yesterday, and partly out ahead of the new showers that approach the southern mountains. This is something to keep an eye on, but it doesn't look like there will be as much penetration northward as we need. Here's how the models are handling it:

WRF - Tuesday PM CMC - Tuesday PM GFS - Tuesday PM

It's one of those situations where despite how much some of y'all like the nice sunny weather, it would be better for the soil if the CMC or the GFS would verify, but it should be pointed out that the WRF (in my opinion) does a little better on the near-term time frames. We'll see how it goes today. The Sun is going to try to come in from the north and west, but expect the clouds to put up a fight.

---Tangent (Recap) skip if uninterested---

The Storm Prediction Center put out a neat graphic recently that demonstrated a good bit of skill in anticipating the eventual tornado outbreak that we've talked about here and in the news.

It shows the evolution of the warning areas in terms of severe weather and tornadoes from 7-days out through the same day of the event. They did a pretty good job of both forecasting and warning the local citizens. The last image on the graphic shows the storm reports from the day of the event.

---End Tangent---

Temperatures this week will resume their up-and-down nature we've seen all too often this Spring. After yesterday's frontal passage, we'll get some refreshingly cooler weather in here, but it doesn't take too long to scoot temperatures higher now that we're into mid-April:

 

GFS - Max Temps - Tuesday GFS - Max Temps - Wednesday GFS - Max Temps - Thursday

 

Of course, we'll be battling some clouds and a few patches of showers during that time, but still several hours of dry weather each day. Thursday appears to be one of the better days as it stands right now-- and wouldn't you know it, that's the same day we're going to be down at the Hillbilly Festival in Pikeville, KY ;-)

And we're still keeping an eye on this weekend's storm. The models are all over the place on it... We can talk about this tomorrow, and string together the model 'creep' to show how they have been handling the system up through now. For a while there it was pretty consistent, but it is starting to jump around. We're still going to get rain though... that hasn't changed.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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