Navigating an unsettled and tricky weather pattern

Periods of showers continue to dot our area today, but will not be affecting everyone all at once. There will be breaking clouds in between episodes as well. A very challenging forecast indeed for anyone trying to be more specific than this.

It is hump-day, and it's better to have the most annoying weather in the middle of the week, rather than the weekend. :-)

To build on what we talked about yesterday, we now have the "convergence zone" located over the Ohio River Valley. From here on out through the end of the week, we'll be tracking several roving bands of showers cutting across from west to east. It will be difficult to nail down exactly which location gets hit when, but the higher resolution models could offer some clues... Here's a breakdown:

NAM - Wednesday PM NAM - Thursday AM NAM - Friday AM

A couple of things to note: (1) The first batch of showers today have at least more or less consistently been aiming to the north of I-64. This puts the bulk of the showers into Ohio and interior WV, with better prospects for breaks in the clouds and warmer temperatures in the south; (2) The remaining episodes of showers are blobs of rain that flare up, work across, and die down. This sort of thing is exactly what we saw just after lunchtime yesterday; (3) There are still a bunch of holes between each period of rain such that breaks in the clouds are still possible in-between; (4) Temperatures are going to vary all over the place in response to this weather dynamic. For example, we could easily see high temperatures getting to 80-degrees today where the rain misses, but not make it out of the 60s where its gloomier. [forecast high temperatures were way off yesterday in the Huntington area because of this]. Offering a range of 65-80 on today's weather graphics won't prove very useful for any one area, though I'm betting we see such a thing in the results for the wide region that gets our broadcasts. :-)

So how long will this last? Unfortunately, right toward the weekend :-( Eventually the moisture will become more concentrate on the other side of the Appalachians, and that will get us a break.

Here's the analysis for the weather in the coming days, compared to average (I forgot to post this yesterday):

6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature 6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation

 So far, I can certainly believe the wetter-than-average conditions already. The plunge of cold air in the middle part of the country has been prolonged through the whole month, and the same could be said for the warmer air toward the west coast.

Check back frequently to monitor the radar, as that's the best way to have a handle on where the rains are to plan out your day a few hours ahead. Fortunately today if we can spot the vein of moisture wafting up toward the north we'll have a reasonable degree of confidence that it will be persistent in that direction for a while.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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