11/12 Update - Well, the snow came in more-or-less as advertised, and was most prevalent during the early morning hours. Folks along Corridor-G and in the far south had to wait a little while longer for the cold air and snow to get there. Here's what the final reports are from the area (based on what you all have been saying and the weather offices...)
The higher elevations of Nicholas, Webster, Fayette, etc. in West Virginia aren't done yet, as the lake-effect is kicking back in and they also have that upslope advantage. I didn't see any 3" amounts, although over 2.5" were measured by ruler on some pictures from the hills.
Fortunately the roads stayed wet, as was going to be the case given the typical November soil temperatures. Had this same event occured in January we probably would have had to worry about a flash-freeze on the roadways with this change-over-- not a fun time.
Do these numbers jive with what you saw at your house? Feel free to put any reports in the comments.
From here, things turn quieter given a strong area of high pressure coming to town...
It's getting to be that time... Tuesday morning is going to be interesting for the Tri-State. Even if no snow sticks around beyond that morning drive, it's not like we've had practice in that kind of weather. Coming off a three-day weekend we're all a bit rusty ;-)
Let's look at how the latest hi-res model runs are positioning this storm for us:
NAM - 1am Tuesday (image grows when borders are expanded)
The moisture is moving in a little earlier, but still starting off as rain. Notice from the first two maps that the precip is nearly all behind the front instead of out ahead of it. This is called an "anafront", as opposed to the more traditional "katafront" that has the precip out ahead. Anyway, you can see from the wind streamlines that a cold surge of air is going to be driving this front forward. This is going to provide the impetus to turn a chilly rain into a steady wet snow right around peak intensity Tuesday morning. So, when does this change-over come to your town? I would follow the 4-5C dashed temperature line on these graphics...
The change-over should be pretty quick, and most of any accumulation you might see happen from there into the next 60-90 minutes beyond. After that point the phasing of energy dissipates and the precipitation gets weaker. This turns light snow into drizzle. Given soil temperatures near 50, whatever sticks will have to be the result of moderate snowfall intensity or displacement away from the ground itself (bridges, overpasses, grass blades, etc.) It's just this burst during the morning hours that has us concerned the most. Any modest snowfall is going to come with low visibility too-- even if it doesn't stick to a warm road.
These are the kinds of snowfall numbers the models are spitting out:
...And here's what I went with this morning...
Now, from the looks of things, I may be a little higher than some of the models-- which is interesting considering normally I'm the low person. That 'snow burst' concept has me concerned, even with those warm ground temperatures. Now, I do want to stress that these numbers aren't for what's still there Wednesday morning (or even Tuesday night), as melting will occur even while it's still snowing if it's not snowing hard enough.
The most common experience will be just that grassy coating for the lower valley floor areas, especially in communities south of I-64 (you folks who typically are on the low end of snowfall amounts) -- that warm ground temperature just can't be overcome and the good juice is fading by the time the changeover reaches you. ... To as much as 1-2" on the ridgetops along and north of I-64 and in the WV moutains (those folks that typically get more than forecast). There will be some spots fluffing up to 3", but that shouldn't last long as temperatures will be getting back above freezing in the afternoon. Overall, this is a minor event, but one that has that potential to be a high impact one given its timing and the quick-intensity of the potential snowfall.
I will be updating this when I can, and I'll provide the tracking maps below. Please feel free to chime in with a weather report or picture, as I'll be leaving this one up during the storm. As far as "But what am I going to get" questions are concerned, I'm hoping I've appropriately covered it above. If there's any confusion, let me know :-)
Give yourself plenty of extra time tomorrow morning, especially if that flash change happens when you're out the door.
Have a great day everyone!