Now comes the annoying stuff...

Yesterday's storm stalls out to our north, and we'll get several days of nuisance drizzle, rain, flurries, snow, and whatever else we find in between.

Welcome to your Wednesday -- Half-way there!

Unfortunately, yesterday's dreary weather is just the start of what's to come. Not that we'll see something heavy coming along the way, but it's just going to stay rather gray.

Here's what's going on...

HPC - Surface Map - Wednesday Evening

Our low pressure system (the one that brought places in Kansas an entire season's worth of snow in a single day, but gave us rain) will be moving northeast-ward into the Great Lakes region. As discussed previously, this is going to start that engine up, bringing bands of light precipitation through the tri-state. Initially we have warm enough temperatures such that the bulk of the region will get more scattered rain, but as the day wears on that cold air will filter in enough to mix over to wet snowflakes.

This cycle will continue through the end of the week, but will never bring enough moisture to mount up. Here's what the GFS looks like on this:

GFS - Thursday GFS - Friday GFS - Saturday

As the storm weakens and becomes un-spun, we still will get a component of windflow across our area that crosses the lakes. At the same time, temperatures above the surface will continue to cool, gradually eliminating the likelihood of rainfall from the equation. However, freezing drizzle is still going to be a possibility given the weakness of the clouds in such an environment.

Here's what the projected precipitation total looks like right through the weekend:

HPC - Projected Total Precipitation - Through Sunday

0.25" - 0.5" over the course of 5 days... not exactly heavy stuff. In fact, I'm skeptical of much snowfall accumulation outside of occasional coatings that melt away soon after they finish falling. I wouldn't be surprised to go through periods of alternating drizzle and freezing drizzle (which could certainly put a sneaky ice glaze on some of the roads). Definitely an annoying way to finish the month of February. The ski resorts, however, will be looking at the enhancement of upslope windflow. This can get them an inch or two for each wave that comes by. Not a bad way to continue a great streak of weekends.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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