Welcome to your Tuesday!
This morning is the time to focus on, as rain and snow come to town. It's part of that weak area of low pressure that has quickly gathered itself together and is racing northeastward across the Tennessee Valley on through the central Appalachians.
|HPC - Surface Map - Tuesday AM|
Initially we're talking about a light rain, but as those raindrops fall they will be cooling the atmosphere. This phenonmenon is measured by the use of the "wet-bulb" temperature, which shows the coldest temperature that can be reached by evaporating water into the air (evaporation is a cooling process). You can follow the rain/snow line below by checking out our radar products in the tracking maps section.
Here's a breakdown of the events by way of the NAM model:
|NAM - Precipitation Type - Tuesday 4am||NAM - Precipitation Type - Tuesday 10am||NAM - Precipitation Type - Tuesday 4pm|
The rain-snow line will start out around Route 50, and work its way southward during the morning hours. Right during the morning commute much of the I-64 and north area will be changed over to snow-- however the moisture will also be progressively moving out of the very same areas. Expect some light accumulations (around 1" or so, mainly on the grassy surfaces, but also bridges/overpasses are vulnerable). Whatever does fall in the area will be melting in the afternoon, as the lack of evaporative cooling and the passage of the system to the east will allow temperatures to warm into the low 40s. The day also has a good shot to finish with some sunshine working its way back in from west to east. Overall, a nuisance system with little to show for it, but hunters in Ohio will appreciate the snow coating to aid in tracking the deer :-)
|GFS - Snowfall Forecast - Tuesday's System||NAM - Snowfall Forecast - Tuesday's System|
In these most recent model runs, the accumulation patterns have been altered compared to yesterday's perspective. The NAM wants to concentrate the accumulations over toward the mountains (which certainly is reasonable from a climatology point of view). The GFS is now focusing most accumulations along and north of Route 50 and the central WV regions. A blend of these two, in my opinion, is appropriate. We'll be looking at brief accumulations along I-64, but the stuff that may make the commute a little dicey seems reserved for places north of there and into the eastern mountains. Overall, not a whole lot is coming from this, and most folks who even see snowfall at all will be watching it melt in the afternoon. The National Weather Service is currently focusing its Winter Weather Advisories north of us and out of our area from Lewis County WV eastward into the higher terrain.
Following this event, skies clear out again and we'll be treated to another couple of dry days. Temperatures will also warm up during the period.
|GFS - Max Temps - Thursday||GFS - Max Temps - Friday||GFS - Max Temps - Saturday|
This time around the Football Playoff weather may not be so cold and ugly compared to last week, but this is the time of year for those chilly bleachers. Temperatures will be heading above normal for a change by the weekend.
Take it easy this morning, especially if the flakes are flying during your morning drive. Keep an eye on things using the tracking maps below!
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!