On the sidelines for the Nor'easter, but fun to watch

I don't know about you, but it's nice to have a little longer of a break between big storms and just watch from afar. There are signs the coastal Nor'easter we've been watching will come in slightly weaker-- but also with a better shot at finishing with snowfall.

Good Wednesday morning to one and all. :-)

Today's weather map features the elephant in the room known as the coastal Nor'easter we've been tracking all week long. There was a kerfuffle in the media earlier in the fall when The Weather Channel announced it was naming winter storms similar to the way the National Weather Service does for hurricanes. This may seem interesting at first glance, but it's a little too selfish and unweildy when it comes to practice. First of all, what do you do in a case like Sandy, where we clearly had a winter storm, but also a hurricane with an official name. Also, local tv stations have been naming storms for decades-- how confusing would this usurping be? Does this storm get a name? There will be snow, but does there need to be a minimum threshold to qualify? This certainly will be a storm, but it's still an open question as to what happens with it.

HPC - Wednesday PM

One interesting thing about this coastal storm is that it wont be impacting us-- barely even scraping the mountains. Now, parts of southern/eastern KY may sneak in a few showers there, but that's not the main cloud shield of this nor'easter. Notice the purple line governing rain/snow. It looks right along I-95, though weighted closer to the coast the farther west you head. This is not very common as the moisture usually isn't there when this happens. Let's take a look at the updated storm tracks by model:

Current Storm Tracks By Model

Oops...forgot to label them... The blue one is the NAM, the GFS is the red, and the green is the ECMWF. The "X" again represents the 40n/70w benchmark for good I-95 snow storms. It appears now we've got a situation where there's another split across the benchmark. The NAM is outside the benchmark, implying more opportunity for snow but less moisture, and the GFS is advertising more moisture overall, but a rainier solution for the bigger cities, at least to start. The GFS and Euro become intriguing on the back-side; if the moisture can still wrap around we'd be looking at the possibility of snow even for the northern New York City boroughs.

GFS - Accumulated Snowfall

I'd go on and on about this one, but it's really not for our area... I do love me some snowstorms though :-)

Anyway, moving along...

Our weather here may actually be quite pleasant as the coastal storm passes us. Thursday has lowering humidities at cloud level because of the big system hogging it all. Beyond this, high pressure drives into the region and we'll have several days of nice weather...all the way to the weekend.

GFS - Thursday PM GFS - Sunday PM

That decent system out to the west moving up into Canada north of Minnesota will do the trick to warm us up appreciably. High pressure is also quite strong over New England-- a good combination of the two to keep sunshine in place in the east, and the rain going up the Mississippi valley to the west. Check out some of these numbers :-)

GFS - Max Temps - Friday GFS - Max Temps - Saturday GFS - Max Temps - Sunday

That's definitely what I call an Indian Summer! Course, my wife calls that a perfect opportunity for an outdoor "Honey-Do List" ;-)

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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