It's a Memorial Day Monday!
The tri-state area sports some of the highest per-capita concentrations of War Veterans in the country. At one point WV had the highest per-capita veteran population of any state in the US, though the most recent census now gives that distinction to Alaska. No matter, at least you know there are plenty of people to thank today, and they're all close by :-)
Today will feature another round of sunshine and near 90s heat. We'll also get more of Nature's air conditioners in the afternoon, beginning in the mountains. Here's a NAM analysis:
|NAM - 4km SimRadar - Monday 2pm||NAM - Windfield By Altitude - Monday 2pm||NAM - Monday 2pm|
Judging from the windfield (in center), it's clear we have a stacked area of high pressure overhead such that whatever storms form will again be those 'air-mass thunderstorms' from the heating hours of the day. The wind speeds are relatively minor as well, so once these storms form, they'll essentially be carrying themselves around by their own dynamics-- usually just rumbling downhill.
Once we get beyond today, we'll be finally awaiting the return of a front-based line of showers and storms. There will be a lot of untapped built-up energy overhead, so expect the thunder. We'll also be watching for the potential for severe weather, but if this system arrives during the morning like some of the models are predicting, that should help keep down the threat. All-in-all, we're in line for a single day event:
|GFS - Tuesday AM||GFS - Tuesday PM||GFS - Wednesday AM|
HPC is indicating between 0.5" and 1.0" from this event, though for a 1-day event sometimes that's a bit overdone because of the grid-space in the model smearing higher totals from some storms over to places that may have been missed. But since the average daily rainfall for the month is around 0.10-0.15", everyone should get a healthy watering.
Our next system to watch comes later on in the week, and we talked about that one in the models yesterday. One of the more notable things about it, is that it is advertised to put quite a cool-down into place:
|GFS - Temp Departure From Normal (Anomaly) - Monday||GFS - Temp Departure From Normal (Anomaly) - Saturday|
20-degrees above normal to 20-degrees below normal(!?) I doubt it. But, it certainly is an interesting shot across the bow. :-)
---Tropical Tangent (Beryl)---
For those who are interested...
|NHC - "Beryl" - Track||"Beryl" - Wind Field|
Finally, Beryl is a 'true' Tropical Storm. Expect upwards of 6" of rain in the Jacksonville/Savannah area, and then the storm will be whisked out to sea by the approaching front that will be bringing us rain on Tuesday.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!
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