A good Tuesday morning to one and all.
We start off within the exact same weather pattern as we had yesterday, with the exception that the April sunshine has had another day to work the ground. This means morning lows and afternoon highs are bumped up a couple more degrees from Monday's numbers. Ergo, expect to start off in the low 40s and finish in the 70s. Absolutely wonderful; dare I declare a "TC Top 10-er" before Tony himself does ;-)
Well, make the most of it too, because as we've been talking about the next batch of showers are on the way for Wednesday. The models are slowing it down a touch though, approaching in the later morning hours. Here's the NAM:
|NAM - Wind-Field - Wednesday Midday||NAM - Temperature - Wednesday Midday||NAM - Precipitation - Wednesday Midday|
This slight slow-down allows for the Sun to get some heating in before the rain arrives, destabilizing the atmosphere a bit more than yesterday's model runs and also putting in a starker temperature contrast along the front. It's another tricky afternoon of 70s and 40s across the tri-state area. There should be some rumbles of thunder here and there when this line comes through, but even the Storm Prediction Center has this one on the low end-of-the-scale (less than 5% risk of a severe thunderstorm of any type).
Here's what we'll be looking for in terms of rainfall from this line:
|HAS Precipitation Forecast||HPC Precipitation Forecast|
We're running less than 1" below normal rainfall numbers, so it's not a bad spot to be in prior to the rains. This one is going to be of the 'garden variety' as well, so the lawn will be thanking you all the way out to the garage or the shed for another mowing.
Behind the front the temperatures will again drop, but not to the same degree as we had late last week. Another system is approaching this weekend, so we'll be inching back upward before it moves in.
|GFS - Saturday Morning||GFS - Sunday Morning|
At this point I'm not very comfortable about either weekend day given that slow crawler lumbering through the Ohio Valley. But, if I had to choose, I'm feeling Sunday as the better day as the moisture heads north and east (probably closer toward the afternoon).
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!