Welcome to Wednesday ... Ready for a break from the heat yet?
Unfortunately, this pattern is not going to break for too long. Let's just hope we can get a day of dry weather with "nicer" temperatures before more summer-like heat comes right back. The strong/severe storms have been out west of us the past day or two right along the sweet-spot clash of air masses. You'll notice this "clash" becomes less "clashy" in the coming days (here's the GFS):
|GFS - Thursday PM||GFS - Friday PM||GFS - Satuday PM|
The precipitation gets less concentrated, but still looks to move in with more earnest on Friday and hangs around Saturday.
Another way of showing how the storms in the mid-west will deteriorate somewhat by the time they reach our area, will be to examine the strength of the warm and cold air at work in the system. Here's the GFS temperature "anomalies" (departure from normal):
|GFS Anomaly - Wednesday|
On This map, we start off with temperatures in Michigan greater than 30-degrees above normal, but in a line going right down the Mississippi River south of St. Louis, MO, you can see a dramatic drop-off of temperatures that go below normal. The difference in temperature across a distance is called a "gradient", and this is quite the gradient :-) The reason I'm showing this map, is because in the days that follow you will see this drama dissipate, as the air essentially mixes and modifies a little bit-- enough to mute the contrast almost completely (the white color represents the "zero" mark, indicating temperatures near normal):
|GFS Anomaly - Saturday||GFS Anomaly - Monday||GFS Anomaly - Wednesday (next)
As always, you can click on the image to pop up a larger one. What these maps are showing, is that the storm system as a whole gets weaker as it approaches us (though will still be good enough for thunderstorms; we've been building up a little energy around here). The weekend and first part of next week will be best to enjoy temperatures that are remotely closer to normal (within about 5-10 degrees or so-- upper 60s). But, then comes the kicker: unseasonably warm air again appears right around the corner. Let's hope we can keep this next batch out of the 80s. Some of you may love this kind of weather, but I personally would like more time in the 70s.
Since we've been talking about the potential for severe weather in the Mississippi Valley for a while now...might as well throw up all the tracking tools. Perhaps the one you'll be using the most will be the temperature map today ;-)
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!