Our best shot at a good day-- before the big change

We'll be threading the needle between systems today, offering a nice bump in temperatures and some drying-out. Unfortunately, it's not going to last too long.

Welcome to Thursday!

We caught a nice break (well, most of us anyway) yesterday afternoon with the parting clouds and pleasant sunshine. As we've been talking about, a weakening cut-off low pressure system will often deteriorate into bands of moist and dry air all spiraling around the center. This had resulted in a pretty diverse weather experience when some were able to hang out in the vein of partly sunny skies while others got stuck in a rumble of thunder. Today figures to be the great equalizer.

HPC - Surface Map - Thursday

Our cut-off storm system finally kicks across the Appalachians, and after two weeks of road-tripping the country it finally gets absorbed into our next system approaching for the weekend. In the meantime, today is the day for the best expectations of sunshine and dry skies. Make the most of it too, because it won't be long before we're back at the rain.

NAM - Thursday Evening NAM - Friday Morning
NAM - Friday Evening

There are indications that by late Thursday a few showers will stumble in from the west, but even into Friday it's not going to be all terrible. The best sun will be on Thursday, but Friday also figures to have at least partly sunny skies between approaching rain drops. Highs both days will get to the 70s, but Friday will have a larger range of experience based on how much sun you're able to maintain overhead.

The Big Change...

Moving on to the weekend, unfortunately we're looking at a decidedly un-May-like change in the weather pattern. A deep dive of cold air follows our weather-maker, bringing the threat for frost(!) Monday and Tuesday morning.

GFS - Saturday Afternoon GFS - Monday Morning

There's a risk of thunder on Saturday, but over-all there's not going to be a lot of precipitation-driven change with this one over the Mother's Day weekend. In fact, I'm looking for partly cloudy skies the second-half of Sunday, but with dropping temperatures through the afternoon. Breezy cold-air cumulus would be the expectation. Here's a look at some upcoming low temperatures as modeled by the GFS:

GFS - Min Temps - Monday GFS - Min Temps - Tuesday

Typically frost-prone valleys will probably need to think about this one again, particularly because of all the new garden-planting ideas that Mother's Day brings.

We've got good news up ahead ultimately: The 70s and 80s come back next week, starting with a nice rebound even Tuesday afternoon.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!


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