Hello Saturday blog-watchers!
Thank you so much for stopping by. I appreciate your 'hits' on this blog. It helps me to know that it is a useful (and sometimes entertaining) internet destination for local weather afficionados ;-)
Today has been advertised as a beauty for a while, and we'll get about 80% of that today. It will be perfect for all sorts of outdoor activities like:
...But if gardening is your thing... then today's your day. Folks in southern Kentucky may not be able to make it through the entire day with the same blue skies as everyone else, because that pesky weather system is approaching. Here's what it looks like on the maps:
|HPC - Saturday PM||HPC - Sunday PM|
The cold front in the middle of the Ohio Valley is not really of much consequence. Instead, the low pressure system in the Deep South that is going to slowly wander up into the Appalachians is where all the moisture is. There's a lot of it too. Now, HPC doesn't expect it to be in the area until Mother's Day morning. However, here's the latest from the WRF / GFS on the subject:
|WRF - Saturday PM||GFS - Saturday PM|
There are similar features in both, but the WRF is hinting at a little more moisture making it into the southern mountains by later this evening. I'd wrap those outdoor plans up, because once the showers start, we're going to be inside for a few days. There will be a conveyor-belt setup that directs incoming Gulf moisture right up our way. This focusing line slowly moves eastward early next week, and it may take through Tuesday to finish out:
|WRF - Tuesday||GFS - Tuesday|
On Tuesday the models start to diverge a little bit, with the GFS being a little more progressive in pushing those showers through, while the WRF keeps our Tuesday pretty wet. In my opinion, it doesn't really matter which is right when the conversation is about total rainfall, because they both still have it in for our area (though if you were to ask, I'd say the WRF is looking better and to keep the umbrella nearby). Here's what HPC is thinking about now when talking about the rain through early next week:
|HPC - Total Rainfall - by Tuesday|
That is a lot of water heading northward out of the Gulf. Notice the split though between the bulls-eyes of rain in Kentucky and Virginia. It appears the models want to initially setup the 'inverted trough' we talked about yesterday to the west of the slopes such that it comes out from Louisiana, but by the time the surface low moves from Louisiana to Alabama it will re-develop and re-focus along and east of the mountains. This sort of thing happens often for our weather, and those mountains just love to split the impact of storm systems heading in. (It's even more noticeable in winter, because it sets up this donut-hole of sorts where the River Cities area just-so-happens to get barely any snowfall compared to other folks closer to the mountains or farther away from their influence.
Still, it's a lot of good watering for those freshly planted flowers. Careful with the fertilizer though, in case it washes out in a good downpour. Speaking of downpours, for those who are getting close to the 2" rainfall numbers, know that downpours and spot flooding may well be a part of your balanced breakfast-- after today.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!