Updated Below (most recent 4:00pm)
A good Tuesday morning to one and all.
We're still tracking our storm system approaching from the west, and so far the models seem fairly consistent with the breakdown of what will be happening.
|NAM - Precipitation Type - Tuesday Midday||NAM - Precipitation Type - Tuesday Evening||NAM - Precipitation Type - Wednesday Morning|
The beginning is still looking wet instead of icy, with temperatures propelling through the 40s. However, the leading edge of the initial front moves through from around midnight through abour 3-4 am-- that section can have some sleet mixed in for our Ohio folks, and of course light snow in the WV mountains. Rain should carry the day for most locations once things get going again in the late morning hours. In the overnight tonight, the colder air starts wrapping around our new system developing on the eastern side of the mountains. We'll see snow first in both the WV mountains and our far western OH/KY counties, gradually pinching in to the River-Cities area. From then on expect occasional snow showers west of the mountains, with more accumulating snows for the higher terrain to the east. Check out the winter weather advisories and warnings in the tracking maps below for the National Weather Service's expectations of where the target counties are for snowfall.
The models have gotten a little more snowy since the last runs, though I would still not get excited for most of the River-Cities area (the donut-hole is still mulling about):
|NAM - Projected Snowfall - Through Thursday||GFS - Projected Snowfall - Through Thursday|
Click on the above images for a larger pop-out...
One thing that you should be immediately picking up on is the snowfall maximums exist on the east-facing slopes of the WV mountains and also north of I-70 toward Columbus, OH. I'm fine with 6-10" of snow up US-219 and points east -- this one is going to be pretty good by March standards along I-68 and US Route 50 once you get into Tucker county. I realize this is outside most of our area. The snowfall minimum continues to be in the lowlands west of Charleston into southern Ohio and eastern Kentucky. At this point, the best we're looking at is an inch or two, though I'm not as big on that either. We'll have to keep an eye on Wednesday morning's commute though, as flakes may well be flying everywhere.
Update (9:30am) - Rain showers already moving in from SW to NE today, but factor on the showers getting steadier as the day wears on. The change-over to snow still isn't going to happen until after dark, but those high elevation spots in the eastern WV mountains may still hold onto some sleet for a while today, getting rain for a tad bit of time, then quickly going over to snow this evening.
Now is about a good of time as any to throw up my official snowfall forecast (together with another one I found online from the National Weather Service) :-)
|My Snowfall Forecast (mainly on Wednesday)||National Weather Service - Snowfall Forecast|
Click on either of the above images for a larger pop-out.
Now that you have a whole slew of different forecasts, model and human-generated, you should be able to identify the common themes: Most of the good snows are in the WV mountains to the east; The slushy / lighter accumulations in the river cities area and the traditional 'donut-hole' region will be susceptible to melting quickly and mainly be focused on the ridge-tops; Portions of Kentucky, particularly in the southern sections, may sneak out an extra inch or two given how this storm is going to jump across the mountains; that the large majority of the snow will come in conjunction with the morning commute Wednesday, making a clear call for extra caution, even if you're not going to end up with much afterward.
Update (4:00pm) - I started making an update that was sparked by a Facebook poster on my Facebook page (where else...) I decided to make it a blog post all it's own because it was getting long. Perhaps a little too carried away, but I was trying to explain how storm systems 'jump'. Our low pressure system has been hopping all over the place and re-developing a few different times, so might as well talk about it.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!