WSAZ - Blogs - Brandon Butcher

Rain this Weekend, Flurries Next Week?

The rainfall forecast for this weekend is revisited and the potential for snow flurries during the week of Christmas is examined.

The weekend rainfall is looking to hit the Ohio area the hardest. However, we will all see our fair share of rain. Here is a break down of the day-by-day forecast...


These images are from the GFS model. At this point, the other forecast models imagery are looking rather similar.

Friday Evening- Chance for rain is mainly confined to Ohio, but I wouldn't completely rule out the chance for a shower or two creeping into the far northern extents of West Virginia late in the evening. I would say it will be a great day for shopping in the majority of our region, especially with the warm highs in the 60's we are expecting!

Saturday- Rain will become heavy in Ohio, especially towards central and western Ohio. Occasional rain showers can be expected in far northern Kentucky and northwestern West Virginia. It is likely that Charleston will stay clear of these showers all day along with other areas moving eastward into West Virginia. Any showers that do occur outside of Ohio will be intermittent.

Sunday- The stalled front which was sitting to the northwest Fri & Sat finally starts to make movement eastward on this day. As a result, this will be the best chance to see heavy showers in West Virginia. These showers should become less numerous heading into the late afternoon/evening.

Here is an updated look at the projected rainfall totals by HPC...



Much of the region will see a likely 0.75-1.00 inches over the course of this storm. 1.50-2.00 inches can be expected for S. Ohio, with 2.00-4.00 inches for Central and West Ohio. Keep in mind that in addition to this rainfall, winds will be very gusty over the weekend.

 

After this system passes, we start to turn our attention toward the potential for snow. Although it is early, the models are indicating the chance for a strong cold surge for the start of next week...

These images show the expected temperatures at the 850 mb level according to the GFS and Euro. Temperatures at that level will dip down to about -10°C to -12°C which is cold enough to see snow. But, will there be moisture and forcing?

 

 

The GFS is only showing a small band of moisture for the late Mon PM/ Tues AM time period (image on the left); however, I have a feeling this will change. With a flow off the Lakes, we could see a better moisture surge into our region- enough to bring inches of snowfall to the mountains, with a dusting to an inch for the rest of the region. The panel on the right shows a bit of a vorticity max over our region Monday night which would aid in the upper level dynamics that are needed to produce such precipitation.

It is wishful thinking at best right now, but it is nice to know that the potential is there to see some snow on the ground for Christmas. Of course, I will have to continue to watch for this potential and will keep you all updated. Fingers crossed!

-Kelly Ann

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