Welcome to your Saturday...
We start off with another prowling cluster of showers and storms, just a preview of the day ahead. A lot of moisture exists at many levels of the atmosphere today. Expect just about any storm that pops up today to be armed with the downpours. Here's another way of looking at it:
|Precipitable Water - Saturday Morning||Precipitable Water - August Normals|
The left-hand map shows the current image (as I write this) of "precipitable water", which is a variable often looked to as a gauge of how ripe the atmosphere is for a heavy rain. These numbers should be tempered with climatology, because some areas of the country are simply more humid than others on average. Click on the right-hand map to get a larger image. It represents the "+2 standard deviations" of typical precipitable water values that show up over an area. The idea is if you find yourself beyond 2 standard-deviations of the average value, then you're in out-of-the-ordinary territory. On the above map, as the plume of 2" precipitable water values inch eastward, we will be in that zone, so expect every storm that pops up to be pretty juicy, and the skies to be pretty hazy.
There is also plenty of good news out there too, depending on your perspective: (a) The temperatures won't be able to get to 90 for those who make it into this environment-- meaning the recent weather won't qualify as a 'heat wave' for places like Huntington, WV; (b) with such water-logged clouds, the storms that form won't be able to generate the kinds of updrafts necessary for 'real' severe weather-- high winds, hail, or tornadoes.
High temperatures yesterday:
Charleston - 90°
Huntington - 86°
Parkersburg - 93°
So you can see the kinds of effects a well-timed storm can have on the max temperatures an area can get to.
Our day today will be spent keeping an eye on these roaming storms and assessing the risk and appearance of flash flooding. Other severe weather types are not likely today. Sunday, however, is a different story.
We will break this down more specifically tomorrow, but here's some of what we'll be talking about:
|HPC - Surface Map - Sunday Morning||HPC - Severe Weather Potential - Sunday|
A surface front will be sweeping in, which should do the trick to lift a lot of our loitering storm energy and wring it out overhead. Sounds like some severe thunderstorm watches will be coming-- and some pleasant weather to start the week beyond it.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!