Good Wednesday morning to one and all. Turing the corner on this hump-day-- it's all downhill from here!
We're still going to be tracking the showers today, and given the absence of steering currents aloft, there will be some prolonged downpours in the mix. It is possible that once again the National Weather Service will issue a Flash Flood Watch for parts of the area, but consider the impacts to be targeted and localized rather than widespread. Here's imagery of projected rainfall:
|HAS Precipitation Forecast||HPC Precipitation Forecast|
Despite the marked shift to the mountains, it is still possible to come across the downpours along I-64. The best place to be this time around would be in interior Ohio, where peeks of sunshine will stroll in.
By Thursday, we'll see even less shower action, but folks in the mountains will still have to keep an eye on things. Hopefully your garden will have gotten a good drink of water by then, because we'll be heading for the kiln for the end of the week.
Here's what it looks like on the hi-res simulated radar product:
|NAM - Simulated Radar - Wednesday PM||NAM - Simulated Radar - Thursday PM|
Thursday may be a little optimistic, but if the simulated model is right those temperatures will be jumping up early.
A ridge of high pressure will be working in to our south, and the strong storm system we talked about yesterday will still be sprinting northeast into Canada. This will set up a dramatic influx of warmer air, and this will persist right into Memorial Day Weekend. Here's what it looks like on the GFS:
|GFS - Friday PM|
And here's what this set-up is going to do to our temperatures...(again, the GFS Model output):
|GFS - Max Temps - Friday||GFS - Max Temps - Saturday||GFS - Max Temps - Sunday|
These numbers are trending warmer than what we were looking at yesterday(!) If these temperatures do indeed progress into the 92-93 range this weekend, we will probably be looking at the afternoon pop-up thunderstorms, particularly toward the mountains again. It will be something to keep an eye on as we get closer.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!