Update - Searching for holes between storms, and breaks from the heat

Unfortunately, in weather like we're having, you usually get one or the other. Here's where you can expect each...

Updates below (most recent 4:00pm)

Good morning everyone!

After last evening's active weather pattern over the Ohio river, I thought it might be good for a slight change of pace. Today, instead of tracking storms, how about we track the absence of them-- perhaps to spot some good weather outside? Just like yesterday's experience should evidence though, you can get several hours of decent enough outdoor weather even on a day that was humid and stormy in retrospect. So, first up, an image that I displayed on yesterday's blog, updated to reflect today's realities...

HAS Precipitation Forecast HPC Precipitation Forecast

As we were discussing yesterday, the good news is that most of the real heavy stuff is going to be sliding just to our north. But, that means we will be baking if we aren't getting the storms. Now, let's see where our openings are (which is a challenge in and of itself). How about Wednesday:

HPC - Wednesday
GFS - Wednesday PM
NAM - 4km Simulated Radar - Wednesday PM

These maps are placed in order of most general to most specific when examining from left to right. The left-hand map is actually a forecast and not a computer model, so those areas are broad-brushed and hand-drawn. The one in the middle is a model with a decent resolution, and the one on the right is our current super-hi-res beast. The one on the right calls for the most sunshine Wednesday, and its higher resolution lends it more credibility. However, the other ones have a slight advantage of pooling together what happens over the course of a few hours together to get a more general image (which can be more helpful in a pop-up shower event). At any rate, 2 out of the 3 are showing that we'll still be fighting showers tomorrow, though the hi-res map, if it verifies, will be calling for a drier but very steamy hot day.

Here's the same exercise for Thursday:

HPC - Thursday
GFS - Thursday PM
NAM - 4km Simulated Radar - Thursday PM

 A little more agreement here, though the afternoon cumulus is puffing up on the GFS and the NAM sim-radar. I'm more inclined to peg Thursday as the better day, but the better the day, the hotter the temperatures. I would not be surprised at all to see some bank and car thermometers reach 90° in this soupy air mass.

Our rain threat does not disappear for long though, as we'll get a few more rounds in the ring with the scattered afternoon storm. Things do change Saturday into Sunday as a more sweeping cold front clears out some breathing room (but probably will do so with some rumbles of thunder:

GFS - Saturday AM GFS - Sunday AM

Perhaps some good news for some heading to Churchill Downs? Perhaps not? We'll have to see wont we ;-)

There will probably be more updates today because of the lingering threat for thunderstorms and the continued possibility for flooding, etc. Check back often for updates, and feel free to follow me on Twitter for any severe weather alerts as they come down.

Update 4:00pm - Once again we find ourselves under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather. This threat is more marginal than before, and most of the action will be to our north again, but here's the breakdown:

SPC - Hail Threat SPC - Wind Threat SPC - Tornado Threat

One of the things to watch for is the thunderstorm complex out in the western part of the Ohio Valley. It will be moving east, steered along by the winds at the 500mb level that will be curling around the top of an area of high pressure in the deep south. As it progresses, occasionally there will be new clusters of storms that form along it and will protrude toward the southeast relative to the main line. This would be the way that we would end up with a piece of the party. Also, the air is generally destabilized during the prime heating hours of the afternoon (2 - 7pm), so it would stand to reason to spot a few "pop-up" thunderstorms-- particularly north of the Ohio River or in the mountains. Check the maps below and we'll watch what comes :-)

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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