Shake and (then) bake...

A March Monday in May...

Welcome to your Monday -- I hope you packed for cold!

The jackets are coming back out again, and there'll be some choice words walking across the early morning parking lots to be sure this morning. There are many frost and freeze advisories out today (you can monitor the maps below for changes, but as of this posting, here's what we've got):

NWS - Frost / Freeze Advisories

A "frost" advisory typically means that frost conditions are expectable during the advised time-frame (almost always the pre-dawn and morning hours). Temperatures here get between 38 and 32 degrees. A "freeze" warning means that temperatures are expected to dip below 32 degrees, and for a few hours in a row at that-- definitely a dangerous time for sensitive plants. You can monitor the current temperature reports below by looking at the tracking maps below. Sheltered valley locations outside the more urban areas can sometimes see 5-10 degrees colder conditions (same between ridge-top and valley floor).

Here's another interesting nugget in our trip through March-like conditions:

NAM - Monday Afternoon NAM - Precip Type - Monday Afternoon

The NAM may be getting a little ambitious on this one, but in response to the deepest rotation of cold air energy through the Appalachians it wants to spit out a few showers (and yes, snowflakes too on the higher terrain). Blog-watchers from Nicholas County on up through to Canaan Valley should chime in on the comments section below if you see anything, but I surmise it will not get this crazy and most of us will instead see partly to mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon.

Now the good news...

Well, I guess one more bit of bad news... Tuesday morning will be another cold one, but the afternoon will turn our fortunes around dramatically. A couple of storm systems off to our west will channel huge amounts of warm air from the southwest and keep the pedal to the metal. Here's some high temperatures coming up, courtesy of the GFS:

GFS - Max Temps - Tuesday GFS - Max Temps - Wednesday GFS - Max Temps - Thursday

I'm thinking we're going to go straight to "hot" on this one if those temperatures hit the upper 80s. The body has scant time to get acclimated to any part of this temperature swing.

The next opportunity for showers will come later in the week, around Thursday (see the 7-day forecast below). At this stage they look pretty pedestrian, but eventually we'll have to work more thunder into each forecast because of the increasingly warm temperatures involved.

6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature 6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation

Speaking of warm temperatrues, the mid-range modeling wants to keep us in the warm, and bring on more of the wet. Considering we're still in a bit of a hole thanks to April, sounds fine with me. As long as it comes in 'garden variety' amounts.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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