It's back to Monday out there, and we'll get some showers this time around. It's nice to get a break with such wonderful skies during the weekend-- I'd gladly prefer the rain on a Monday (leave my weekend alone).
Anyway, when it gets close for a precip event, I prefer a product that is put out by two outfits, the NNM and the ARW that is a hi-resolution simulated radar product. Remember, there's three main ways of improving upon a computer model: (1) Improving the physical processes and understandings within the model; (2) Increasing the amount/quality of initialization information that the model ingests; (3) Refining the resolution of the terrain and tightening the grid-space by which the model smooths out its product. It takes so much processing power, that trying to improve the resolution by a factor of 2 requires an increase in processing by a factor of 4 (and can take longer to run, which may make the end result useless if it takes 12 hours to run a 12 hour forecast model). Currently the NMM and ARW make a 4-km grid-spaced radar product, which is pretty darn hi-res considering the surface of the country and the history of computer models. Here's the output from the two models at around the time it thinks rain will first fall:
|NNM SimRadar - 10am Monday||ARW SimRadar - 10am Monday|
So just like we were seeing yesterday, there is a coalescence around the mid-late morning hours that the showers will try to get into town, though it remains a rather sloppy picture compared to the arrival of a cold front (warm fronts are often like this when they lift through the area like with this event). Looking at the NNM picture, it would appear that a rumble of thunder looks possible, however severe weather indicators place the best opportunity for that kind of action far to our west:
|NAM - Lifted Index - 2pm Monday||NAM - Most Unstable CAPE - 2pm Monday|
The "Lifted Index" would indicate the availability for voluminous and strong vertical lifting capacity within the environment (a semi-crude 'yes or no' for thunderstorms), while the "Convective Available Potential Energy" map would show you just how much juice is actually there if something is going to set it off (the higher the number, the more gasoline ontop of dry kindling, so to speak). It looks like the bulk of the action is going to be to our west, but that makes for at least some spectating rather than interacting with severe weather, which is a good thing. These are just two of many thunderstorm/severe weather model variables that are mined for data to unlock where storms will pop. I suspect we may have to keep an eye on the Mid-west and Tennessee Valley Monday afternoon for whatever potential for severe weather may pop up.
Here are your weather trackers for the day. I will keep updating these so long as there is a need that I can find a way to fill :-)
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!