Update - Showers and storms return ahead of cooler weather

It's another like many days recently: early sunshine fades for the late-day storm. This time though the rain looks to stick around a little longer and we'll get a cool spell afterwards.

Updated Below (most recent 1:30pm)

Good Monday morning everyone!

It's back to work-- though I spent a fair amount of time blogging over the weekend. I addressed some of y'alls questions about "what the summer will look like". You can check out my post on that here... I have to caution you though: It's probably only good for those folks that are really interested. I had to take a few breaks reading it, let alone writing it ;-)

This post will be a little more abbreviated as a result-- I have to sleep sometime you know. Anyway, it's a good thing we have some stormy weather right on our doorstep, because I can then focus on that. As it stands, the stronger moisture holds off until the evening, as model consensus shows:

GFS - Monday Evening WRF - Monday Evening

There will be a few showers out ahead of the main impulse of rain because we'll be doing that warm-front then cold-front thing again. Expect another mild/humid day as well. We do look to cool down considerably following the front. Here's an animation of how Monday night through Tuesday morning will look (From HPC):

When the front gets here, we may have to worry about tracking strong to severe storms, the Storm Prediction Center has already placed our far western sections under a "Slight Risk" despite it being early on. This post will be updated tomorrow where necessary. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter for all the latest storm alerts ( @WSAZBrandon ).

Update 10:30am - The Storm Prediction Center has issued a "Slight Risk" for the western portions of our area for the storms that are arriving today... Here's the breakdown:

SPC - Hail Threat SPC - Wind Threat SPC - Tornado Threat

The main threats are for possible hailers and gusty winds, with tornadoes being on the minimal/rare side. These are coming in late in the day-- more likely overnight for the heavier rains. I may touch on this in a future update, but I think it's common knowledge that flooding is the true worry around here, as the ground is quite saturated. It won't take much.

Update 1:30pm - Now that we're in the "Warm Sector" of the advancing storm system (between the warm front and the approaching cold front), we are starting to see a few showers/storms pop up in the heat and humidity of the day. At first, these are going to be disorganized and scattered, but a more concerted line will arrive more likely in the overnight. Until then, underneath any isolated storm could provide a downpour. Naturally, these won't help out the situation when it comes to flooding. Here's the most recent "Flash Flood guidance" for selected counties around the region:

Name 1-hr 3-hr 6-hr 12-hr 24-hr
Cabell (WV) 1.6" 1.8" 2.1" 2.3" 2.6"
Mason (WV) 1.6" 1.9" 2.1" 2.3" 2.6"
Kanawha (WV) 1.5" 1.6" 2.0" 2.1" 2.5"
Logan (WV) 1.5" 1.7" 2.0" 2.1" 2.4"
Athens (OH) 1.5" 1.8" 1.9" 2.1" 2.5"
Elliot (KY) 2.0" 2.2" 2.5" 2.6" 3.0"
Martin (KY) 1.8" 2.1" 2.3" 2.7" 3.2"

The recent flooding in southern Ohio is quite evident in the flash flood guidance, as that whole are can be set off with less than 2" of rain in a 6-hour period. A single thunderstorm is able to put down the 1.5" of rain in an hour-- Louisa saw near 1.5" in just 30-minutes late last week. No thank you.

Full slate of tracking maps today!

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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