Updated Below (most recent 1:30pm)
Good Monday morning everyone!
It's back to work-- though I spent a fair amount of time blogging over the weekend. I addressed some of y'alls questions about "what the summer will look like". You can check out my post on that here... I have to caution you though: It's probably only good for those folks that are really interested. I had to take a few breaks reading it, let alone writing it ;-)
This post will be a little more abbreviated as a result-- I have to sleep sometime you know. Anyway, it's a good thing we have some stormy weather right on our doorstep, because I can then focus on that. As it stands, the stronger moisture holds off until the evening, as model consensus shows:
|GFS - Monday Evening||WRF - Monday Evening|
There will be a few showers out ahead of the main impulse of rain because we'll be doing that warm-front then cold-front thing again. Expect another mild/humid day as well. We do look to cool down considerably following the front. Here's an animation of how Monday night through Tuesday morning will look (From HPC):
When the front gets here, we may have to worry about tracking strong to severe storms, the Storm Prediction Center has already placed our far western sections under a "Slight Risk" despite it being early on. This post will be updated tomorrow where necessary. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter for all the latest storm alerts ( @WSAZBrandon ).
Update 10:30am - The Storm Prediction Center has issued a "Slight Risk" for the western portions of our area for the storms that are arriving today... Here's the breakdown:
|SPC - Hail Threat||SPC - Wind Threat||SPC - Tornado Threat|
The main threats are for possible hailers and gusty winds, with tornadoes being on the minimal/rare side. These are coming in late in the day-- more likely overnight for the heavier rains. I may touch on this in a future update, but I think it's common knowledge that flooding is the true worry around here, as the ground is quite saturated. It won't take much.
Update 1:30pm - Now that we're in the "Warm Sector" of the advancing storm system (between the warm front and the approaching cold front), we are starting to see a few showers/storms pop up in the heat and humidity of the day. At first, these are going to be disorganized and scattered, but a more concerted line will arrive more likely in the overnight. Until then, underneath any isolated storm could provide a downpour. Naturally, these won't help out the situation when it comes to flooding. Here's the most recent "Flash Flood guidance" for selected counties around the region:
The recent flooding in southern Ohio is quite evident in the flash flood guidance, as that whole are can be set off with less than 2" of rain in a 6-hour period. A single thunderstorm is able to put down the 1.5" of rain in an hour-- Louisa saw near 1.5" in just 30-minutes late last week. No thank you.
Full slate of tracking maps today!
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!