Hello Wednesday -- Half-way to the weekend!
Showers are the main event today, well, unless you also count the falling temperatures. We start off on the mild side this morning, with temperatures rising on breezy winds until the turnaround occurs with the first rain drops. Here's the NAM with another update on the timing:
|NAM - Wednesday Midday||NAM - Wednesday Evening|
This is more-or-less the same pacing as the last two days worth of runs. This allows folks in the Kanawha Valley to start off with peeks of sunshine and a warming morning before the onset of the showers just after midday. By the same token, those in Ohio and Eastern Kentucky will be able to see the showers finish out before the end of the day, though getting the fields dry enough for practice is going to be another story. Here's what we're looking at for rainfall:
|HAS Precipitation Forecast||HPC Precipitation Forecast|
The bulk of the rain is reserved for folks to the north and west of us, but it's still good to get a natural watering for the flowers and a quick stop to the growing brush-fire danger, not to mention the knockdown of sky-high tree pollen.
As mentioned yesterday, the temperatures will be dropping quickly following the passage of the front, and we're anticipating two cold mornings ahead (Thursday and Friday morning).
|GFS - Min Temps - Thursday AM||GFS - Min Temps - Friday AM|
We'll be on the lookout for frost, particularly Friday morning, but either day considering all the plants everyone's been putting in the ground.
The weekend forecast still looks a little murky and complicated, with a weak area of low-pressure slow-playing its hand up the Ohio Valley during the weekend. Now the indications are that Saturday's forecast may be improving:
|GFS - Saturday||ECMWF - Saturday|
The set-up features another strong area of high pressure far off to our northeast and that blob of showers to the southwest. The two will do battle at first, with the question being just how long the high can hold off the rain. If Saturday ends up dry, it won't be for Sunday. It's all still too close to call right now, and a lot of that has to do with the weakness of the low pressure. It's actually more like a dip in areas of high pressure. The average surface pressure on Earth is 1013.5mb, and in this case the "low" may not dip a whole lot below 1020mb. We've certainly had storms (especially in winter) that can roll through at that kind of number, but most of the time it's kind of a knuckle-ball. The good news is that we've still got plenty of time to keep an eye on the stitches. (Can you tell I'm getting into the swing of baseball nowadays?)
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!