Updated below (most recent 5:00pm)
Happy Thursday everyone!
Waking up this morning the clouds are already there to greet us, but the showers themselves are still a ways away.
|HPC - Surface Map - Thursday Afternoon|
This area of low pressure is still pretty far to our south, and will pass well underneath us on its travel to the eastern seaboard. However there is that inverted trough that protrudes off to the north of it. This will provide most of the impetus for shower in our area, but even then I don't think everyone will see raindrops.
|NAM - Thursday Late-Day||NAM - Early Friday||NAM - Friday Midday|
If you live in Ohio, you might even miss it entirely. Down closer to Pikeville and Beckley you'll be seeing the lion-share of the rains, but even there it'll be out by lunchtime on Friday.
Ya gotta love the warm air coming back across for the weekend-- It's just what the doctor ordered.
|GFS - MaxTemps - Friday||GFS - MaxTemps - Saturday||GFS - MaxTemps - Sunday|
A seventies-weekend indeed!
We'll try to keep the weekend dry, though Sunday afternoon looks to be a little challenging for folks in the north. We'll keep an eye on it.
Update (5:00pm) - A neat thing with this storm system is that as it clips our region, some snowfall is now being reported up above 2000-feet in the WV mountains. Temperatures are sharply contrasted from the River Cities area (mid-50s) down to a place like Lewisburg, WV (low 30s). What is happening here is that the dry air that's been in place overhead these past few days has kept the dew points in the 20s. As the storm arrives, falling precipitation evaporates into the dry air as it falls, eventually raising the humidity. This evaporation has a cooling effect, and the difference between the dewpoint and the air temperature is wide enough at the lower levels of the atmosphere such that by the time the air gets saturated enough for moisture to reach the ground, it's also cold enough for snowflakes.
This process is best tracked by using a different measurement of temperature, called the "wet bulb". Wheras the normal thermometer is a 'dry bulb', the wet bulb measures the coldest temperature the air can get to by way of evaporation (just what we're talking about). Here's the current 'wet bulb' scenario we are in...
|Current Wet-Bulb / Radar|
It's the purple dashed contour that represents wet bulb temperatures at or below freezing. And, true to form, that's pretty much were the snow is falling (with a little adjustment to either side given elevation).
The tracking maps below should be good for you to see where snow is falling and where it's not. [Nearly all of us are going to get just rain]. Winter Weather Advisories are now posted for mountain areas along and east of US-219 through West Virginia. Believe it or not, a couple of inches of wet snow can fall in this area. If you know folks out that way, let me know if you see any :-)
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!