Welcome to Sunday ... Hopefully y'all got to enjoy a good chunk of Saturday.
Now it's time to relax inside for a while, as those showers slowly move by the tri-state. We've got a weak and slow-moving system pushing through the Ohio Valley that may well take 2 days to get the job done. Here's the surface map:
|HPC - Surface Map - Sunday|
1010mb is pretty weak as far as storm systems go, but this kind also moves rather slothfully too, with very little momentum being sandwiched in between areas of high pressure. As a result, widespread showers mull about the place. Here's what we're looking for in terms of rainfall:
|HAS Precipitation Forecast||HPC Precipitation Forecast|
Eventually, the system loses all its upper-air support and it just fizzles rather than actually moving anywhere specific.
|GFS - Sunday Afternoon||GFS - Monday Afternoon||GFS - Tuesday Afternoon|
By the middle of next week we'll be back to partly cloudy skies and a warming trend, though that's also because another storm system is loading up in the Mississippi River Valley. Folks that are heading west for the Kentucky Derby festivities might want to pay attention to this one, as a "cut-off" low pressure system lurking near post-time can always play around with the track conditions, let alone the myriad of other things to do at Churchill Downs.
|GFS - 500mb Chart - Saturday Afternoon||GFS - Sfc/Precip - Saturday Afternoon|
These "bowling ball" storm systems are often tricky ones-- They can stall out over an area for a significant amount of time (causing flooding), but can also entrain inflows of dry air bringing warm sunshine. You can see both the dry air and the avenue for persistent showers and storms showing up on the above maps, all in response to the swirling upper-air energy on the left-hand map. This is something we'll be tracking intently over the next several days.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!