Update (7-15) - Today's weather pattern continues where yesterday left off, but this time around the available moisture in the atmosphere creeps up a notch or two. Here's a fresh look at the "precipitable water" product from the GFS:
|GFS - Precipitable Water - Sunday Afternoon|
The 2.0" numbers are creeping back into the tri-state area, nudging in along the Ohio River. The last day that featured the same amount of available moisture was Friday, and widespread 1-2" rainfall was reported.
Depending on how things fire up, the National Weather Service may end up needing to issue "Flash Flood Watches", but if the action stays sporadic then you may only see warnings associated with individual thunderstorms. The garden is still going to love it, but make sure you're careful on these roadways if localized street flooding occurs.
Welcome to your weekend :-)
Saturday starts off where Friday left off, but there's a lot less available in the sky for general moisture. Steering currents are still weak, so it's not like there's a whole lot of new water coming in. Nevertheless we'll be watching for more showers and storms to pop. This time around expect some partly sunny skies in between roaming storms, and that most folks will see that more commonly than the showers.
The rain will be following what is known as a 'diurnal' schedule. Temperatures in a given day typically peak around 4-5 pm and bottom out around 7 am. This up-and-down pattern is called the diurnal. Earlier in the day things are quieter, then the flare-up gets going around 2pm and continues through sunset. Here's a model representation of this:
|NAM - Saturday PM||NAM - Sunday AM||NAM - Sunday PM|
Not the disappearance in the morning and then the re-firing in the afternoon. It's typical summer stuff, but it's almost impossible to pinpoint the firing lines before they start happening. Just like the Fire Swamp in The Princess Bride you just get precious little advanced warning. But don't worry about 'warnings', the threat for severe weather again is low. I'm not showing the GFS with this one today, because it's still a mess-- calling for "scattered showers and storms" from here to 2037.
Yesterday we managed to get almost an inch of rain in Huntington, and over two inches in Charleston. It was a great day for those who recall we need a whole bunch of rain around here to make up for a deficit of several inches since the start of the year. We're going to be adding to the rainfall totals in the coming days, but it will be sporadic. Overall, the hope is for everyone to see something like this by the time it's all done:
|HPC - Rainfall Projection - Through Thursday AM|
This does not reflect an all-day rain (or anything like what we had yesterday). Instead we'll be looking for the hit-or-miss pop-up variety storms. Some will get a quick half-inch in a short amount of time, while others will steam up and wonder where all the rain is. Those with outdoor plans shouldn't fret too much: Yes, a poorly timed storm could get you for an hour, but overall there will be much more opportunity for dry skies than wet in a given day.
Here's another reason for optimism regarding the sky conditions:
|GFS - MaxTemps - Sunday||GFS - MaxTemps - Monday||GFS - MaxTemps - Tuesday|
Actually, two reasons...
1. If the storms weren't at least in-part diurnally forced (meaning generated after significant sun-brought surface heating), then we wouldn't have 90-degree temperautres on the model for us. As a case in point, yesterday's temperatures spent much of the day in the 70s with the rain. It wasn't getting near 90 without sunshine.
2. Look at the difference between the temperatures in the north and those in the south. In the winter time, this could be as much as a 70-degree difference but today it's not even a single degree of difference between highs in Maine and that of Georgia. Only by Tuesday do we even start to see a temperature contrast out in the Northern Plains. The bigger differences manifest actual storm systems mulling around, but these non-existent onces are more indications that we're dealing with 'air mass' thunderstorms that will pop in the heat of the day.
Alls I can say is that I hope those who want the rain get it, and those who don't...don't. :-) Don't forget to consider heading out to the Putnam county fair and the Lawrence county fair today. Some good stuff right there.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!
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