Skies go dry until Isaac arrives

The Sun returns to the region this mid-week, and we'll heat back up in mid-summer form-- but the remnants of Isaac are headed this way. It is something to keep an eye on for this Labor Day weekend.

Good Wednesday morning everyone...

For some of you, only a little while before a last-Summer's-getaway. For others, a weekend of more "labor" ;-)

The weather maps today feature a return to high pressure and sunshine, and also an onshore tropical system we've been watching for a while-- you might have heard of it recently ;-)

HPC - Surface Map - Wednesday Afternoon

The broad area of high pressure is going to factor greatly into the forecast for the rest of this week, not only as a bringer of sunshine, but as a blocker of tropical systems. Isaac will be forced up the Mississippi River valley, and then later into the Ohio valley as it rotates around this ridge. It will take its time doing so, not even affecting our weather until closer to the weekend. As a result, our local weather will stay with the sunshine, but also feature temperatures creeping back up toward 90.

The details on Isaac...

Here's the latest on Isaac's track:

 

NHC - Hurricane Isaac - Current Information And Forecast Track Wunderground - Hurricane Isaac - Computer Models

Look at how all the models are now clustering around a specific solution-- and that that solution takes the storm up and over us, into the Great Lakes. This is going to be reflected in where the heavier rains fall--

HPC - Rainfall Projections - Next 120 Hours

This is great news for so many folks that have been suffering under a large drought for months (though I'd say it's a little late)... But we do need some rain too, particularly in our Ohio counties. Notice how there's an arm of moisture lifting up just north of I-70 in the Buckeye State, with a lot of folks underneath it being left out. What I think is going to happen here is that when this tropical system weakens, it will unwind-- this means it will also develop fronts, like a regular low pressure system. That initial arm will be the "warm front", that focuses moisture along itself but when lifts north of an area leaves little organized rainfall behind. It wouldn't be until even later for the "cold front" to scrape by us to bring another bout of organized rainfall. Trying to time this out is definitely tricky, but here's how the GFS has it:

GFS - Early Saturday GFS - Monday PM

This makes the Labor Day weekend rather interesting, because this means the remnants of Isaac will be "in our vicinity" during the whole thing, but the fact that we'll apear to be in between the warm front and the cold front for a large part of it (also known as the "warm sector") means that you should not go changing plans or expecting wash-outs. Most of the showers will be concentrated in the early and late waves associated with the fronts themselves, without much pinpoint-able organization in between. Now remember, none of these things haven't actually happened yet, so there's still a lot to keep an eye on. But, that's my thinking as of now.

Webcams...

Oh yeah, I almost forgot... Here are some webcams of the New Orleans area. They may be hard to see in the dark, but most of the serious possibilities with tropical storms hitting the Gulf Coast would be concentrated right at the coast, and in particular New Orleans. Here are some shots-- feel free to check back often, as they are updated frequently. I may get to post some more as the day wears on.

Webcam - Lake Pontchartrain - Causeway Webcam - Greater New Orleans Expressway

Let's keep an eye on things for a few days, and enjoy the late-summer sunshine.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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