Welcome back to another Monday.
For a lot of us (in West Virginia and Ohio) the rain held out much of the weekend and it was just perfect, but toward the mountains the wind was a little breezy and the showers kept creeping in on the Kentucky side. We'll be following the continued slow movement of the rain across our area.
|HPC - Surface Map - Monday|
Flanked on all sides by high pressure and continuing to be cut-off from any steering flow, this same low pressure system (the one that gave the Plains states the snow and record low temperatures last week) will continue to limp along through the eastern US. Notice the onshore fetch of moisture streaming across the Carolinas. Wherever that coveyor belt sets up, we'll see plenty of rain-- enough for flood watches. At this point the worst of it will be on the upslope side of the Appalachians to the south, the other side from where we are. Here are the rainfall expectations over the next 48-hours:
|HAS Precipitation Forecast||HPC Precipitation Forecast|
The farther south you are will dictate your amount of rain. We certainly need it for the lawns and gardens out there, so we'll take what we can get. If the models are to be believed, we're still going to be in a stubborn pattern of seasonably cool temperatures and scattered afternoon showers.
|GFS - Wednesday Afternoon||GFS - Thursday Afternoon||GFS - Friday Afternoon|
Though this isn't all-day rain, it still bears watching and planning, much like one of those summer afternoons would have.
This pattern mulls around the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas until this coming weekend, where another deep trough takes shape. In fact, the GFS and Euro are advertising something that's a little too much for mid-May:
|GFS - Monday Morning||Euro - Sunday Morning|
Though I expect it to modify warmer in subsequent model runs, this would imply highs struggling to get back to the 50s, with morning temperatures that may well be frost-worthy. So far this March - May pattern has been quite cooler than normal on the whole for the US.
|6-10 Day Outlook - Temperature||6-10 Day Outlook - Precipitation|
The mid-range forecasting doesn't hold out much hope for us just yet in this department.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!