Smooth sailing for now... but a potential problem for the weekend

High pressure continues to dominate the area, with dry skies and temperatures inching into the 80s. But, now there's a question about Sunday...

It is Friiiiiiday!

Got to love the pleasant weather around these parts. After being so up and so down over the last several weeks (months), it's good to get the "just right" Goldilocks of weather for a change. High pressure is sitting pretty over-head, so expect another glorious day today.

HPC - Friday PM

HPC is picking up on those scattered mountain showers we were talking about yesterday, but given the anticipated wind direction (from the southeast), only that face of the mountains will be the focus for any pop-ups-- and that's the side away from us.

Since our area of high pressure is hanging out closer to New England, it will be more courteous to them in terms of longer-lasting sunshine. But for us, the southerly winds will still be able to usher in a little warmth. Check out the updated temperature output numbers from the GFS:

GFS - Max Temps - Friday GFS - Max Temps - Saturday GFS - Max Temps - Sunday

The mid to upper 80s push into interior New England during this time, bringing out the sunscreen and water bottle for the entire eastern-half of the country.

Now to the problem...

Recent model runs for the weekend have started to diverge significantly regarding a weak-ish system located off the US coastline (you can actually see it on the surface map above). Here's what the GFS is resolving:

GFS - Saturday PM GFS - Sunday PM

This looks harmless enough: As our next weather-maker creeps in from the west, there are some coastal showers and storms affecting the Carolinas, but certainly not looking ominous for our area. Now take a look at the NAM model:

NAM - Saturday PM NAM - Sunday PM

What a difference. This model wants the easterly flow brought in by the high pressure system in New England to actually strengthen a little weather system and move it in backwards toward the mountains. This is certainly an unusual but not impossible weather solution. Obviously it's not the desired outcome considering how many folks have plans that day. Typically the NAM would have the edge in model preference because of its higher resolution, however it is toward the deep-end in its model time-run (it doesn't go nearly as far as the GFS as a consequence of its higher resolution). Since this idea is a relatively new entry to the model rendering, and doesn't have support from the GFS, and because it's still two days away, it is important to mention and to keep an eye on, but not a plan-changer just yet. With subsequent model runs, this will certainly become more clear.

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---End Tangent---

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Have a great day everyone!

-B

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