Updates Below (most recent 6:00pm)
Welcome to your Monday.
Today is mainly a rain event, as a low pressure center moves straight through the tri-state.
|HPC - Surface Map - Monday PM|
Temperatures will make the 50s...at least at first, before dropping when we get to the cold side of the system. Unfortunately (for snow-lovers), we're not talking about a very 'cold' side.
|NAM - Monday Night||NAM - Tuesday Midday|
As I said in a previous blog post, in order to get the flakes to fly, you need the moisture to hang back long enough for the cold air to work in behind the front. In this particular scenario, temperatures will be dropping through the day, but not quite getting cold enough. Normally you'd like to see something less than -2C at the 850mb level. On the above map for Tuesday, the thick black line represents the 0C line, with the dashed lines indicating the below-zero values. There's just not a lot of cold air here to make things happen. The mountains can get a little coating in this situation, but the lowlands look to be left out.
The next system does much better with the cold air, but unfortunately we're not starting off on the right foot.
|GFS - Thursday PM||GFS - Friday PM|
Going in the wrong direction on Thursday, even warming to the 60s as the front approaches. But, once we get to the back-side, a good shot of cold air drives down from Canada putting us all the way to -10C. That would mean snow if there's enough moisture left over.
That's always the annoying thing with these sorts of systems that slice through a section of the Ohio Valley. But the GFS is giving us a little hope here with their modeled snowfall product.
|GFS - Snowfall Projection|
The highest totals along the Canadian border are for areas that primarily stay on the cold side of the system, but for our area it all depends on what happens with after the cold front passes through. This would be lake-effect and also any possible wrap-around if the storm re-intensifies at the Atlantic Coast. Overall though, it probably won't do the White Christmas trick for everyone.
This would be the last storm system "of note", but there's another little one looking to move in on Christmas Eve. Unfortunately it's another border-line system, so that doesn't hold out too much promise initially. The best part about it is that we still have some time to keep an eye on it. We'll look at that in a future post.
Update (6:00pm) - There's a good line of showers (including thunder) plodding eastward into our Kentucky counties. You may notice the clear skies or the humid breezes picking up. So far, there have been a few thunderstorms that flirted with "severe" qualifications, but so far not getting out of hand. With the setting sun, the threat should be lessening, but don't be surprised at all to hear the rumble of thunder, starting from Portsmouth to Prestonsburg.
If you experience any of this, feel free to post about it in the comments below.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!