Happy Tuesday Everyone!
This day is actually going to make some folks happy for a number of reasons-- mainly those who have been pining for a break from winter and a warm taste of spring. You got it today :-)
It comes courtesy of a strong fetch of southwest winds that will channel in warm air out ahead of a strong storm system gathering steam out west.
|HPC - Surface Map - Tuesday|
An interesting element to the forecast today is the prospect of sneaking around the showers and slipping in sunshine to go along with the out-of-season warmth. This happens all the time in these scenarios. I'm not saying leave the umbrella at home and head straight for the board shorts, but don't be surprised to see a "partly sunny with scattered showers" forecast end up a little heavier on the "partly sunny" than the "scattered showers".
To clue you in on what follows today's spring immersion, check out the projected max temperatures in the days that follow. You should notice a trend:
|GFS - Max Temps - Tuesday||GFS - Max Temps - Wednesday||GFS - Max Temps - Thursday|
The highs in the 20s and 30s sweep across the Ohio Valley and quickly replace temperatures as high as 70. Not only will that make you go through the entire wardrobe in two days, but unfortunately there are not too many pleasant ways in meteorology to make that sort of drastic change happen.
Case in point:
|SPC - Severe Weather Probabilities - Wednesday|
That percentage number reflects the probability of severe weather occurring within 25-miles of any one point in the contoured area. The fact that there are many 25-mile radius circles within that area means that at least someone's probably going to get it. At this point, the front-runner for what I think would be the real risk would be for gusty winds right when the front comes through.
Current projections from the NAM indicate this is right-smack in the middle of the day Wednesday.
|NAM - Wednesday Early Afternoon||NAM - Wind-Field - Wednesday Early Afternoon|
There are pretty stout winds on both sides of the front as it moves through, and any thunderstorm will have the added effect of translating winds that are even faster aloft down to the surface by way of those falling rain drops. This is something we'll definitely be tracking Wednesday.
Back to Winter to Finish the Week
We're still keeping a distant eye on the end of the week for the prospect of accumulating snow. I'm souring a bit on the idea of getting snowfall to occur behind this particular front, even with the crashing temperatures. I bet there'll be flakes in places, but the bigger concern is the flash-freeze that can ice up all the standing water created from all the rain of the previous day. If snow is your favorite weather flavor, perhaps hold off your wishin' and hopin' and dreamin' and prayin' until Saturday.
|GFS - Saturday Morning||GFS - Saturday Evening|
This is another one of those Clipper systems. Hopefully this one turns out better than the last one for the folks that are desperate for some semblance of a snowy winter, but it's way too early to make any calls. At least the GFS has been consistent on it for a couple of runs in a row.
Stay tuned tomorrow if the threat of severe weather increases.
|Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking||
From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image
|Activity Overview||Storm Outlook||Watches||Potential Watches||Storm Reports|
|Temperatures||HD Doppler Radar||Estimated Rainfall||Active Warnings|
|Click For Larger||Click For Interactive Radar||Click For Larger||Click For Larger|
Have a great day everyone!