WSAZ - Blogs - Brandon Butcher

Spring Returns to the Tri-State, and With the Risk of Wild Weather

Get ready for a roller-coaster ride over the next few days, which also can mean strong storms. At least we get the good part first.

Happy Tuesday Everyone!

This day is actually going to make some folks happy for a number of reasons-- mainly those who have been pining for a break from winter and a warm taste of spring. You got it today :-)

It comes courtesy of a strong fetch of southwest winds that will channel in warm air out ahead of a strong storm system gathering steam out west.

HPC - Surface Map - Tuesday

An interesting element to the forecast today is the prospect of sneaking around the showers and slipping in sunshine to go along with the out-of-season warmth. This happens all the time in these scenarios. I'm not saying leave the umbrella at home and head straight for the board shorts, but don't be surprised to see a "partly sunny with scattered showers" forecast end up a little heavier on the "partly sunny" than the "scattered showers".

To clue you in on what follows today's spring immersion, check out the projected max temperatures in the days that follow. You should notice a trend:

GFS - Max Temps - Tuesday GFS - Max Temps - Wednesday GFS - Max Temps - Thursday

The highs in the 20s and 30s sweep across the Ohio Valley and quickly replace temperatures as high as 70. Not only will that make you go through the entire wardrobe in two days, but unfortunately there are not too many pleasant ways in meteorology to make that sort of drastic change happen.

Case in point:

SPC - Severe Weather Probabilities - Wednesday

That percentage number reflects the probability of severe weather occurring within 25-miles of any one point in the contoured area. The fact that there are many 25-mile radius circles within that area means that at least someone's probably going to get it. At this point, the front-runner for what I think would be the real risk would be for gusty winds right when the front comes through.

Current projections from the NAM indicate this is right-smack in the middle of the day Wednesday.

NAM - Wednesday Early Afternoon NAM - Wind-Field - Wednesday Early Afternoon

There are pretty stout winds on both sides of the front as it moves through, and any thunderstorm will have the added effect of translating winds that are even faster aloft down to the surface by way of those falling rain drops. This is something we'll definitely be tracking Wednesday.

Back to Winter to Finish the Week

We're still keeping a distant eye on the end of the week for the prospect of accumulating snow. I'm souring a bit on the idea of getting snowfall to occur behind this particular front, even with the crashing temperatures. I bet there'll be flakes in places, but the bigger concern is the flash-freeze that can ice up all the standing water created from all the rain of the previous day. If snow is your favorite weather flavor, perhaps hold off your wishin' and hopin' and dreamin' and prayin' until Saturday.

GFS - Saturday Morning GFS - Saturday Evening

This is another one of those Clipper systems. Hopefully this one turns out better than the last one for the folks that are desperate for some semblance of a snowy winter, but it's way too early to make any calls. At least the GFS has been consistent on it for a couple of runs in a row.

Stay tuned tomorrow if the threat of severe weather increases.

Regional Radar/Satellite with Warnings Tracking

Accuweather Radar

From the Storm Prediction Center (below): Click For a Larger Image

Activity Overview Storm Outlook Watches Potential Watches Storm Reports
Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active Warnings
Current Temperatures HD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Active NWS Warnings
Click For Larger Click For Interactive Radar Click For Larger Click For Larger

Have a great day everyone!

-B

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